Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 172322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
622 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will remain in place
over the region through Sunday. This air mass is very dry. Surface
dewpoints this afternoon were mainly in the teens across the local
area, yielding RH values as low as 20-30%. Thankfully, light winds
and marginal snow cover are mitigating any fire weather concerns. Do
expect a slow recovery in dewpoints heading into Sunday. Skies will
remain clear through tonight, followed by increasing clouds from the
west on Sunday as an upper-level trough ejects eastward off the
Rockies. Even with the clear skies and light winds, do not expect
any fog to develop tonight because the air is so dry. Temperatures
will remain above normal, with Sunday afternoon highs reaching the
mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A minimally impactful stretch of weather is on tap for a good
chunk of the coming week. An upper trough and associated surface
low will pass south of the area Sun night and Monday keeping
better precip chances well south of the region. Broad upper
troughing with embedded shortwave troughs in northwest flow will
then impact the region through mid-week. Some light precip is
possible at times in this pattern, especially west of the
Mississippi, although dry northeasterly low-level flow may serve
to limit precip potential. Temps will trend cooler through early
week, with highs near seasonal norms.

The next period of potentially impactful weather will be late in the
week towards Friday or Saturday as an upper trough and surface low
eject out of the plains. As would be expected, there are plenty of
model differences with timing and placement, with the GFS more
progressive with the system. Thermal profiles also differ, so it`s
too early to tell about precip types, but certainly some potential
for wintry precip.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High pressure will drift southeastward across the region through
Sunday. This will result in light and variable wind at both
KRST/KLSE. Skies should remain mostly clear/sunny at KLSE, but
some of the clouds currently across the Dakotas could impact KRST
late in the period on the backside of the departing high. If any
ceilings develop, they should be above 3500 ft agl.




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