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Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000
UXUS97 KBOU 180226
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
2023 MDT Wednesday, April 17, 2024
This forecast is for Thursday, April 18, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 42.8 F/6.0 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
Maximum rate of lift........................ 101 ft/min (0.5 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 10433 ft MSL (5149 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 50.0 F/10.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1245 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9546 ft MSL (4262 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 04/19....... Poor
Wave Soaring Index............................. Excellent
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 11912 ft MSL (6628 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 17559 ft MSL (12275 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Friday 04/19.......... Poor
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:16:13 / 19:41:04 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 24 min 51 sec (804 min 51 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:58:38 MDT... 61.43 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 04/18/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 5918 ft MSL (634 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15021 ft MSL (9737 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11227 ft MSL (5944 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +10.7
K index......................... +8.5
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -57.9 -72.2 265 57 30 1.9 1.0 M M M M M
45000 -55.2 -67.4 265 75 39 -1.2 -0.7 M M M M M
40000 -57.3 -71.1 265 72 37 -1.2 -0.7 M M M M M
38000 -55.6 -68.1 265 72 37 4.7 2.6 M M M M M
36000 -52.8 -63.0 265 72 37 4.7 2.6 M M M M M
34000 -49.5 -57.1 270 72 37 7.6 4.2 M M M M M
32000 -44.9 -48.8 265 70 36 7.7 4.2 M M M M M
30000 -40.3 -40.5 265 67 34 7.4 4.1 37.1 98.9 20.3 M M
29000 -38.1 -36.6 265 65 33 7.4 4.1 36.1 97.0 19.8 M M
28000 -35.9 -32.6 265 63 32 7.4 4.1 35.2 95.4 19.4 M M
27000 -33.1 -27.6 265 60 31 7.5 4.1 34.2 93.6 18.9 M M
26000 -30.9 -23.6 265 58 30 7.5 4.1 33.3 91.9 18.4 M M
25000 -28.7 -19.7 265 57 29 7.5 4.1 32.4 90.4 17.9 M M
24000 -26.4 -15.5 265 55 28 7.3 4.0 31.7 89.1 17.5 M M
23000 -24.3 -11.7 265 54 28 7.2 3.9 30.7 87.2 16.9 M M
22000 -22.1 -7.8 265 53 27 7.2 3.9 29.7 85.5 16.3 M M
21000 -20.1 -4.2 265 53 27 6.1 3.3 28.8 83.9 15.7 M M
20000 -18.3 -0.9 270 53 27 6.1 3.4 27.4 81.4 14.7 M M
19500 -17.4 0.7 270 53 28 6.1 3.4 26.8 80.3 14.2 M M
19000 -16.5 2.3 270 54 28 6.1 3.4 26.2 79.2 13.8 M M
18500 -15.6 3.9 270 54 28 5.3 2.9 25.6 78.1 13.3 M M
18000 -14.9 5.2 270 55 28 4.9 2.7 24.7 76.5 12.6 M M
17500 -14.2 6.4 270 56 29 5.0 2.7 23.9 75.1 11.9 M M
17000 -13.4 7.9 270 56 29 5.9 3.3 23.2 73.7 11.3 M M
16500 -12.5 9.5 270 56 29 5.9 3.2 22.5 72.6 10.8 M M
16000 -11.6 11.1 270 55 28 6.4 3.5 21.9 71.4 10.3 M M
15500 -10.7 12.7 270 54 28 6.5 3.6 21.3 70.4 9.8 M M
15000 -9.8 14.4 270 52 27 6.9 3.8 20.8 69.5 9.4 M M
14500 -8.7 16.3 270 50 26 7.3 4.0 20.4 68.7 9.0 M M
14000 -7.6 18.3 270 47 24 7.2 4.0 20.0 68.0 8.7 M M
13500 -6.1 21.0 270 43 22 7.0 3.9 19.3 66.8 8.1 M M
13000 -5.2 22.6 270 40 20 4.3 2.4 18.8 65.8 7.6 M M
12500 -4.8 23.4 265 36 18 3.3 1.8 17.7 63.9 6.6 M M
12000 -4.4 24.1 265 32 16 -0.2 -0.1 16.6 61.8 5.5 M M
11500 -4.8 23.4 265 27 14 -2.2 -1.2 14.6 58.3 3.7 M M
11000 -5.1 22.8 265 22 11 -2.9 -1.6 12.7 54.9 1.9 M M
10500 -5.6 21.9 265 17 9 -3.3 -1.8 10.6 51.2 0.0 M M
10250 -5.8 21.6 265 14 7 -2.7 -1.5 9.6 49.3 -0.9 300 1.5
10000 -5.9 21.4 265 13 7 -0.7 -0.4 8.7 47.7 -1.8 297 1.5
9750 -5.9 21.4 270 11 6 -0.2 -0.1 7.9 46.3 -2.5 289 1.5
9500 -6.0 21.2 280 8 4 -0.6 -0.3 7.1 44.9 -3.3 283 1.4
9250 -6.0 21.2 300 5 3 -0.7 -0.4 6.3 43.4 -4.0 277 1.4
9000 -6.1 21.0 325 4 2 -1.2 -0.7 5.5 41.9 -4.8 271 1.4
8750 -6.1 21.0 355 4 2 -0.1 -0.1 4.7 40.4 -5.6 266 1.3
8500 -6.1 21.0 020 6 3 0.6 0.4 4.0 39.1 -6.3 257 1.3
8250 -6.0 21.2 035 8 4 3.8 2.1 3.3 38.0 -7.0 246 1.3
8000 -5.6 21.9 035 9 4 5.4 3.0 3.0 37.4 -7.3 227 1.2
7750 -5.1 22.8 035 9 5 8.0 4.4 2.7 36.8 -7.7 207 1.1
7500 -4.4 24.1 035 10 5 9.9 5.5 2.7 36.9 -7.7 177 0.9
7250 -3.8 25.2 030 10 5 7.8 4.3 2.6 36.7 -7.8 152 0.8
7000 -3.2 26.2 030 10 5 6.8 3.7 2.4 36.4 -8.0 127 0.6
6750 -2.7 27.1 030 10 5 10.8 5.9 2.3 36.1 -8.2 103 0.5
6500 -1.7 28.9 025 10 5 12.1 6.6 2.5 36.6 -8.0 67 0.3
6250 -1.0 30.2 025 10 5 9.4 5.2 2.5 36.6 -8.0 38 0.2
6000 -0.3 31.5 025 10 5 8.7 4.8 2.5 36.6 -8.0 9 0.0
5750 0.4 32.7 025 9 5 9.0 5.0 2.4 36.3 -8.2 M M
5500 1.2 34.2 025 8 4 15.4 8.4 2.6 36.7 -8.0 M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
04/18/2024 at 0900 MDT | 04/18/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +17.6 LI... +6.2 | CAPE... +18.8 LI... +5.7
CINH... -1.7 K Index... +9.9 | CINH... -0.5 K Index... +9.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -57.6 -71.7 265 57 29 2.5 1.4 | -58.0 -72.4 260 58 30 2.4 1.3
45000 -54.2 -65.6 265 66 34 -1.7 -0.9 | -54.6 -66.3 260 65 34 -1.3 -0.7
40000 -56.0 -68.8 265 72 37 -1.3 -0.7 | -55.9 -68.6 265 73 38 -0.9 -0.5
38000 -55.0 -67.0 265 72 37 3.8 2.1 | -54.9 -66.8 265 75 39 3.6 2.0
36000 -52.5 -62.5 270 72 37 3.8 2.1 | -52.5 -62.5 265 75 39 3.6 2.0
34000 -49.6 -57.3 270 71 37 7.2 4.0 | -49.7 -57.5 265 74 38 6.9 3.8
32000 -45.2 -49.4 270 68 35 7.3 4.0 | -45.6 -50.1 265 70 36 6.9 3.8
30000 -40.8 -41.4 270 65 34 7.5 4.1 | -41.2 -42.2 270 67 34 8.0 4.4
29000 -38.5 -37.3 270 64 33 7.5 4.1 | -38.8 -37.8 270 66 34 8.0 4.4
28000 -36.3 -33.3 270 63 32 7.5 4.1 | -36.4 -33.5 270 65 33 8.0 4.4
27000 -34.0 -29.2 265 62 32 7.6 4.2 | -34.0 -29.2 270 64 33 7.6 4.1
26000 -31.7 -25.1 265 61 31 7.7 4.2 | -31.8 -25.2 270 63 32 7.4 4.1
25000 -29.4 -20.9 265 59 31 7.7 4.2 | -29.6 -21.3 270 62 32 7.4 4.1
24000 -27.1 -16.8 265 58 30 7.4 4.1 | -27.4 -17.3 270 61 31 7.3 4.0
23000 -25.0 -13.0 270 58 30 7.0 3.8 | -25.3 -13.5 270 60 31 7.0 3.8
22000 -22.9 -9.2 270 58 30 7.0 3.9 | -23.2 -9.8 270 60 31 7.0 3.8
21000 -20.9 -5.6 270 58 30 6.4 3.5 | -21.1 -6.0 270 59 30 6.6 3.6
20000 -19.0 -2.2 270 58 30 6.2 3.4 | -18.7 -1.7 270 58 30 6.5 3.5
19500 -17.7 0.1 270 58 30 6.2 3.4 | -17.8 -0.0 270 58 30 6.5 3.6
19000 -16.7 1.9 270 58 30 6.3 3.5 | -16.8 1.8 270 58 30 6.5 3.6
18500 -15.9 3.4 270 58 30 4.9 2.7 | -15.9 3.4 270 58 30 5.8 3.2
18000 -15.2 4.6 270 58 30 5.0 2.7 | -15.0 5.0 270 57 29 5.9 3.2
17500 -14.5 5.9 270 58 30 5.1 2.8 | -14.2 6.4 270 57 29 5.8 3.2
17000 -13.7 7.3 270 57 29 5.3 2.9 | -13.3 8.1 265 56 29 5.8 3.2
16500 -12.9 8.8 270 56 29 5.4 3.0 | -12.5 9.5 265 55 28 5.8 3.2
16000 -12.0 10.4 270 55 28 6.9 3.8 | -11.6 11.1 265 54 28 6.2 3.4
15500 -11.0 12.2 270 53 27 6.9 3.8 | -10.7 12.7 265 53 27 6.1 3.4
15000 -10.1 13.8 270 51 26 6.7 3.7 | -9.8 14.4 265 51 26 7.1 3.9
14500 -9.1 15.6 270 48 25 6.7 3.7 | -8.7 16.3 265 49 25 7.1 3.9
14000 -8.1 17.4 270 46 24 6.0 3.3 | -7.7 18.1 265 47 24 6.9 3.8
13500 -7.3 18.9 265 42 22 5.8 3.2 | -6.7 19.9 265 44 23 6.8 3.7
13000 -6.5 20.3 265 39 20 4.3 2.4 | -5.8 21.6 265 41 21 4.8 2.6
12500 -6.0 21.2 265 35 18 3.1 1.7 | -5.3 22.5 260 37 19 3.4 1.9
12000 -5.5 22.1 260 31 16 0.9 0.5 | -4.8 23.4 260 33 17 0.5 0.3
11500 -5.8 21.6 260 26 13 -1.2 -0.7 | -5.1 22.8 260 28 15 -1.9 -1.0
11000 -6.0 21.2 255 22 11 -1.6 -0.9 | -5.4 22.3 255 24 12 -3.7 -2.0
10500 -6.3 20.7 255 17 9 -1.9 -1.0 | -6.1 21.0 250 18 9 -4.9 -2.7
10250 -6.4 20.5 250 14 7 -1.8 -1.0 | -6.5 20.3 245 16 8 -4.5 -2.5
10000 -6.5 20.3 250 13 7 -1.2 -0.6 | -6.7 19.9 240 14 7 -0.9 -0.5
9750 -6.6 20.1 250 11 6 -1.6 -0.9 | -6.7 19.9 235 12 6 0.3 0.2
9500 -6.7 19.9 245 8 4 -2.7 -1.5 | -6.7 19.9 230 9 5 -1.3 -0.7
9250 -6.9 19.6 235 4 2 -0.9 -0.5 | -6.8 19.8 215 6 3 0.5 0.3
9000 -6.8 19.8 215 2 1 1.3 0.7 | -6.7 19.9 195 5 3 2.5 1.4
8750 -6.7 19.9 175 1 1 3.3 1.8 | -6.4 20.5 175 5 2 4.8 2.6
8500 -6.4 20.5 100 2 1 4.3 2.3 | -6.0 21.2 150 5 3 6.3 3.4
8250 -6.1 21.0 080 4 2 5.3 2.9 | -5.5 22.1 130 6 3 6.1 3.4
8000 -5.6 21.9 075 5 3 5.7 3.1 | -5.1 22.8 120 7 3 5.7 3.1
7750 -5.2 22.6 070 6 3 7.9 4.3 | -4.6 23.7 115 7 4 8.1 4.4
7500 -4.5 23.9 065 7 4 9.0 4.9 | -3.9 25.0 110 8 4 9.3 5.1
7250 -4.0 24.8 060 8 4 6.8 3.7 | -3.3 26.1 105 8 4 7.4 4.1
7000 -3.5 25.7 060 8 4 5.5 3.0 | -2.8 27.0 100 8 4 6.4 3.5
6750 -3.0 26.6 055 8 4 9.6 5.3 | -2.3 27.9 095 8 4 9.8 5.4
6500 -2.1 28.2 055 8 4 11.3 6.2 | -1.4 29.5 095 8 4 11.3 6.2
6250 -1.5 29.3 050 8 4 8.8 4.8 | -0.7 30.7 095 8 4 9.5 5.2
6000 -0.8 30.6 050 8 4 8.3 4.6 | 0.0 32.0 090 8 4 8.8 4.8
5750 -0.2 31.6 045 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 0.7 33.3 090 8 4 11.5 6.3
5500 0.8 33.4 045 7 4 17.2 9.4 | 1.9 35.4 085 7 4 20.4 11.2
04/18/2024 at 1500 MDT | 04/18/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +2.0 LI... +3.3 | CAPE... +0.9 LI... +2.3
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +13.2 | CINH... -0.0 K Index... +16.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -57.6 -71.7 265 55 28 2.6 1.4 | -57.8 -72.0 265 54 28 2.2 1.2
45000 -54.0 -65.2 265 69 35 -1.4 -0.8 | -54.7 -66.5 265 71 37 -1.9 -1.0
40000 -56.2 -69.2 275 79 41 -1.4 -0.8 | -57.9 -72.2 270 88 45 -2.0 -1.1
38000 -54.8 -66.6 275 82 42 4.2 2.3 | -56.2 -69.2 270 89 46 5.1 2.8
36000 -52.3 -62.1 275 85 44 4.2 2.3 | -53.2 -63.8 270 88 45 5.1 2.8
34000 -49.4 -56.9 275 86 44 6.5 3.6 | -49.6 -57.3 270 86 44 7.8 4.3
32000 -45.4 -49.7 275 81 42 6.6 3.6 | -44.9 -48.8 270 84 43 7.9 4.3
30000 -41.4 -42.5 270 77 40 7.4 4.1 | -40.2 -40.4 275 81 42 7.4 4.1
29000 -38.6 -37.5 270 74 38 7.5 4.1 | -37.5 -35.5 275 79 41 7.4 4.1
28000 -36.4 -33.5 270 72 37 7.5 4.1 | -35.3 -31.5 275 77 40 7.4 4.1
27000 -34.2 -29.6 270 70 36 7.1 3.9 | -33.1 -27.6 275 75 38 6.4 3.5
26000 -32.1 -25.8 270 67 35 7.1 3.9 | -31.2 -24.2 270 72 37 6.5 3.6
25000 -29.9 -21.8 270 65 33 7.1 3.9 | -29.3 -20.7 270 69 35 6.6 3.6
24000 -27.8 -18.0 265 63 32 7.3 4.0 | -27.3 -17.1 270 66 34 6.5 3.6
23000 -25.6 -14.1 265 61 32 7.5 4.1 | -25.4 -13.7 270 64 33 6.5 3.6
22000 -23.4 -10.1 265 60 31 7.5 4.1 | -23.5 -10.3 265 63 32 6.5 3.6
21000 -21.2 -6.2 265 59 30 6.5 3.6 | -21.6 -6.9 265 61 31 6.9 3.8
20000 -19.3 -2.7 265 58 30 6.5 3.6 | -19.5 -3.1 265 60 31 6.9 3.8
19500 -18.3 -0.9 265 58 30 6.5 3.6 | -18.5 -1.3 265 59 30 6.9 3.8
19000 -17.4 0.7 265 57 29 6.5 3.6 | -17.5 0.5 265 58 30 6.9 3.8
18500 -16.4 2.5 265 57 29 6.7 3.7 | -16.5 2.3 265 57 30 6.9 3.8
18000 -15.4 4.3 265 56 29 6.8 3.7 | -15.4 4.3 265 56 29 6.8 3.7
17500 -14.4 6.1 265 55 28 6.9 3.8 | -14.4 6.1 265 55 28 6.8 3.8
17000 -13.4 7.9 265 54 28 7.2 3.9 | -13.4 7.9 265 54 28 6.9 3.8
16500 -12.4 9.7 265 53 27 7.1 3.9 | -12.4 9.7 265 52 27 6.8 3.8
16000 -11.3 11.7 265 52 27 7.4 4.1 | -11.4 11.5 265 50 26 7.9 4.3
15500 -10.2 13.6 265 50 26 7.5 4.1 | -9.6 14.7 265 47 24 8.0 4.4
15000 -8.6 16.5 265 47 24 7.1 3.9 | -8.5 16.7 265 44 23 8.1 4.4
14500 -7.6 18.3 265 44 23 7.2 4.0 | -7.3 18.9 265 42 21 8.2 4.5
14000 -6.6 20.1 265 41 21 6.6 3.6 | -6.2 20.8 265 39 20 7.1 3.9
13500 -5.6 21.9 265 38 20 6.6 3.6 | -5.1 22.8 265 36 19 7.1 3.9
13000 -4.7 23.5 265 35 18 5.2 2.8 | -4.2 24.4 265 33 17 5.4 3.0
12500 -4.1 24.6 260 32 16 4.8 2.6 | -3.5 25.7 265 30 15 5.0 2.7
12000 -3.4 25.9 260 29 15 2.1 1.2 | -2.8 27.0 260 27 14 3.2 1.7
11500 -3.3 26.1 255 25 13 0.9 0.5 | -2.5 27.5 260 23 12 2.5 1.4
11000 -3.4 25.9 255 21 11 -4.1 -2.3 | -2.3 27.9 255 19 10 -1.2 -0.7
10500 -4.3 24.3 250 17 9 -6.8 -3.7 | -2.7 27.1 245 15 8 -3.0 -1.6
10250 -4.8 23.4 245 15 8 -5.1 -2.8 | -2.9 26.8 240 14 7 -2.0 -1.1
10000 -5.0 23.0 240 13 7 -1.1 -0.6 | -3.0 26.6 240 13 7 -2.5 -1.3
9750 -5.1 22.8 235 12 6 -1.3 -0.7 | -3.3 26.1 230 11 6 -4.8 -2.6
9500 -5.3 22.5 225 9 5 -3.5 -1.9 | -3.7 25.3 220 9 5 -6.1 -3.4
9250 -5.4 22.3 210 8 4 -0.2 -0.1 | -4.1 24.6 200 8 4 -2.4 -1.3
9000 -5.3 22.5 195 7 4 4.2 2.3 | -4.0 24.8 185 7 4 3.7 2.0
8750 -4.9 23.2 180 7 3 5.6 3.1 | -3.6 25.5 170 7 4 6.1 3.3
8500 -4.5 23.9 165 6 3 6.1 3.4 | -3.1 26.4 150 7 4 6.9 3.8
8250 -4.0 24.8 145 7 3 6.3 3.5 | -2.6 27.3 135 7 4 7.5 4.1
8000 -3.5 25.7 135 7 3 5.7 3.1 | -2.0 28.4 130 8 4 7.8 4.3
7750 -3.1 26.4 130 7 3 8.8 4.9 | -1.4 29.5 125 8 4 10.0 5.5
7500 -2.3 27.9 125 7 3 10.7 5.9 | -0.5 31.1 125 8 4 10.9 6.0
7250 -1.6 29.1 125 7 3 8.8 4.8 | 0.2 32.4 125 8 4 9.1 5.0
7000 -0.9 30.4 125 7 3 8.0 4.4 | 0.8 33.4 120 8 4 8.1 4.5
6750 -0.3 31.5 120 7 3 11.0 6.0 | 1.5 34.7 120 8 4 11.3 6.2
6500 0.7 33.3 120 7 3 12.0 6.6 | 2.4 36.3 120 8 4 11.5 6.3
6250 1.4 34.5 120 7 3 9.9 5.4 | 3.1 37.6 120 7 4 8.8 4.8
6000 2.2 36.0 115 6 3 9.8 5.4 | 3.8 38.8 115 7 4 8.7 4.8
5750 3.0 37.4 115 6 3 12.4 6.8 | 4.5 40.1 115 7 4 11.7 6.4
5500 4.2 39.6 115 6 3 20.3 11.2 | 5.7 42.3 115 7 4 19.6 10.7
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
- National Weather Service
- Twin Cities, MN Weather Forecast Office
- 1733 Lake Drive West
- Chanhassen, MN 55317-8581
- 952-361-6670
- Page Author: MPX Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-mpx.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC