Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 250307
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
907 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.UPDATE...

Updated to end the remaining Winter Weather Advisories over SE
Montana. Clouds are clearing in this area for at least a few hours
and any additional snow will be very light. Rest of the forecast
is tracking well. Continue to be aware of the slick roadways
around the region through tomorrow morning. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday Night...

Much of the CWA under blanket of light snow with some areas of
moderate to brief heavy snow as well across the eastern zones
Upper pattern is not terribly well-organized, but there is shallow
frontogenesis around 700mb and upper divergence, mainly from
southeast of Billings to Northern Rosebud that is slowly shifting
east. Radar trends have suggested the heaviest snowfall has
occurred from just east of Billings to Hysham, Colstrip and
Forsyth. Surface obs seem to verify this with visibility down to
a half mile at times at locations in these areas.

Upslope has weakened at Livingston and not much forcing over the
Paradise Valley either with only some light snow or flurries
expected there the rest of the event. Some drier air is also now
evidently infiltrating our west zones as well and snow is tapering
down and no longer accumulating on roads in our west. Thus, we
will cancel the Winter Weather Advisories from Yellowstone County
westward. Additional impacts of snowfall are expected to be
mainly over the east into the evening with some banding despite
relatively un-organized nature of system. So will leave highlights
as is over eastern sections since wrap around moisture still
progged for SE MT into the evening.

By late evening surface high pressure pushes into the high plains
of eastern Montana and the wrapped up surface low in Colorado
gets booted south. This will bring an end to decent supply of low
level moisture and weaken the link to upper support. However, we
will remain in a cyclonic pattern aloft with weak upslope. So some
pockets of light snow or flurries may persist in some areas,
including around Yellowstone County and the western mtns/foothills
through the night and into Monday. None of the lingering snowfall
should have much if any impacts and any local accumulations will
be light at best. Motorists do need to be careful overnight for
slick roads due to refrozen snow melt on roads.

Lows tonight will range from teens west to single digits east. Due
to recent snowfall and deep cyclonic flow over area...we do not
anticipate much of a warm up on Monday. Highs will be mainly in
the 20s (we have undercut model guidance a bit). Lows Monday
night will range from near 20 in the foothills where some winds
will be picking up, to single digits on the eastern border. BT

Tuesday through Sunday...

Cyclonic flow persists over the forecast area on Tuesday, behind
the departing system. There will be low precipitation chances for
snow from around KBIL W in the morning, then higher PoPs W of
KBIL, from 30-50%, for the afternoon. Chances for snow will be
highest in the western mountains with not much accumulation. High
temps will be below normal, from the mid 20s far E to the mid 40s
W. Forecast area dries out Tue. night. Upper ridging will build in
through Wednesday and highs will reach the 40s and 50s across the
area. Thursday will be the warmest day of the period with highs in
the 50s to lower 60s under SW flow. Chances for rain will
overspread the area from W to E through KBIL. PoPs will range from
30% E of KBIL to 60% over KLVM. Western mountains will have high
chances for snow with not much accumulation.

Clusters varied between upper ridging and SW flow on Friday. NBM
precipitation chances were from 20% E to 40% W. Rain and snow in
the morning will be mostly rain in the afternoon with temps in the
40s to 50s. Moderate to high chances of precipitation in the form
of mixed rain and snow will last through the weekend. The clusters
had differences in the handling of the next Pacific trough, so
this time period bears watching. The highest 24 hour probabilities
for 2 inches or more of snow were from 00Z Sat-00Z Sun. KLVM had a
16% chance, KBIL had a 20-30% chance and KSHR had a 17% chance.
For the same time period, the higher peaks of the
Beartooths/Absarokas had a 40-50% chance of 6 inches or more of
snow. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of low clouds, with localized fog and snow will continue to
produce MVFR/IFR conditions from KBIL eastward through 06Z this
evening. To the west we will see a mix of VFR/MVFR and local IFR
due to low ceilings. Mountain tops will remain obscured. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 012/029 017/042 026/055 034/059 033/053 028/042 029/048
    12/S    03/S    10/U    04/R    33/O    46/S    44/O
LVM 013/036 022/045 026/051 035/054 030/050 027/043 026/047
    31/B    15/S    20/N    16/O    44/O    56/S    43/O
HDN 009/031 012/039 021/055 029/062 032/054 026/044 026/049
    12/S    02/S    10/U    03/R    43/R    46/O    54/O
MLS 013/024 007/028 011/044 025/053 030/047 023/040 025/045
    21/E    00/B    00/U    01/B    32/O    23/S    33/O
4BQ 011/024 005/031 014/048 026/059 032/052 026/044 027/047
    31/E    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    34/O    43/O
BHK 009/021 902/025 006/042 019/049 025/046 021/041 022/043
    31/E    00/U    00/B    00/B    22/O    23/S    33/S
SHR 009/029 010/041 020/051 027/062 030/052 026/044 024/048
    41/E    01/B    10/U    02/R    33/O    56/O    54/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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