375
FXUS62 KCAE 040001
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
801 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture and shortwave energy will lead to active
weather for the weekend through early next week with showers
and thunderstorms likely. For the remainder of next week, expect
well above normal temperatures and at least a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers in progress. Latest guidance indicates
additional convective development late tonight, mainly western
half of the forecast area, ahead of a slow moving upper short
wave approaching from the west. Lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The axis of an upper trough is expected to continue sliding
eastward, putting us in a southwest flow aloft regime for the
next couple of days. A series of embedded shortwaves are
forecast to move over the region. At the surface, high pressure
off the coast remains generally in place, allowing for southeast
surface winds across the forecast area. As a result of this
combination, PWATs are expected to increase to 1.6-1.7 inches,
which is near the climatological top of moisture for this time
of year. With this amount of moisture available, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to spread across the area
Saturday and Sunday, with peak coverage in the afternoons.
With a lack of low level forcing mechanism, most of the activity
is likely to be driven by the passing shortwaves. With the
ridging aloft, instability and shear are limited, especially
shear. Therefore, severe thunderstorms are not really expected.

With the widespread cloud cover and scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity, daytime temperatures are forecast to be
closer to average for this time of year compared to the past
couple of days. The increased moisture is expected to keep
temperatures several degrees above average each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A persistent pattern of broad ridging, with passing shortwaves
over the Southeast is expected to bring a continued summer-like
pattern to the region. This should lead to nearly daily shower
and thunderstorm chances through midweek, but coverage is
anticipated to steadily decline after Monday. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually increase due to the stagnant pattern
aloft, with highs mid to late week in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected early in the forecast then increasing
confidence in restrictions on Saturday.

Some weakening showers along an outflow boundary should have
little impact on terminals this evening and remainder of
convection should remain to the west. Widespread clouds are
expected over the region overnight with abundant moisture over
the region and continued moisture advection. Shortwave energy
moving northeastward from the central Gulf Coast states should
bring an increase in showers to the CSRA around or shortly after
sunrise Saturday and these showers are expected to continue to
move into the Midlands through the day with increasing shower
coverage impacting many of the terminals. Thunderstorms will be
possible but low confidence in whether they will directly impact
terminals at the back end of forecast.

Many guidance sources are indicating lower restrictions in
stratus during the predawn hours and continuing through the day
Saturday, with highest confidence at AGS/DNL coinciding with the
expected rain moving in and lower confidence at OGB. Including
some tempo MVFR cig restrictions during the predawn hours at
AGS/DNL and arriving slightly later at CAE/CUB, then carry
prevailing restrictions into the early afternoon hours, all but
OGB which should lose the lower cigs earlier. Cannot rule out
some MVFR fog at AGS/DNL as well.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Late night/early morning fog/stratus possible through the
period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
Sunday and Monday with decreasing chances Tuesday onward.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$