048
FXUS61 KCTP 061439
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1039 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across south central
  PA this afternoon
- Widespread showers and storms are likely for Tuesday night
  through Thursday as the unsettled pattern continues
- Cooler temperatures and lingering scattered showers are
  expected for Friday and into the beginning of the weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fog has mostly lifted across central Pennsylvania as moisture at
the surface has begun mixing out with the early day time
heating. A few stubborn spots in the ridge tops are still
hanging onto their patchy fog, but those should also lift by
early afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s for
much of central PA this afternoon, which will feel noticeably
warmer than this past weekend.

A weak cold front pushing eastward through the area has a few
showers along it early this morning. As it moves south of
Interstate 80 this afternoon, it will tap into enough moisture
and instability to support more numerous showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms as the front approaches the Maryland border.
The highest chance for a few lightning strikes will be across
the Laurel highlands, where MLCAPE is progged to reach 750-1000
J/kg. Meanwhile, enough dry air will nudge into northern PA for
a few peeks of sunshine.

Most model guidance shows the convective activity along the
southern tier waning tonight with the loss of daytime heating,
but isolated to scattered light rain showers will likely
persist. Some fog is possible tonight as well, though
confidence in fog is not as high as it was last night. Low temps
will range form the mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F
in the southern tier, with the north to south gradient in
moisture playing a large role in overnight cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging over PA indicates warmer conditions are
likely Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80F. A
warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley, a 500mb short wave
trough, and 850mb warm air advection pattern will result in
increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the
western counties. Showers and a few storms will overspread the
area Tuesday night as the warm front progresses northeast. MU
CAPE during this time is likely to increase to near 1000 J/kg
and support widespread thunderstorm activity.

Low temperatures Tuesday night will dip to the low 60s across
the northern tier of the CWA and remain in the mid 60s in the
Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into the extended period.
Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with ensemble mean
850mb temps of 16C suggesting max temps well into the 80s
across the Lower Susq Valley.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms
continues to be focused on Wed night into Thursday, with a
deepening upstream trough and sfc low pressure riding up the
Ohio Valley and across the area. The SPC highlights our area in
a MRGL risk for severe weather during this time frame, on the
periphery of a SLGHT-ENH risk area over the Ohio Valley.

The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east
of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of
the upper trough will likely support scattered diurnal
convection Friday through Sunday, along with a downward trend
in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic Ocean will maintain
stratus over Central PA tonight with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs
and ridgetop fog. Improving flying conditions look likely
Monday as high pressure builds into the region from the Grt Lks,
causing winds to shift from southeast to north. Latest forecast
soundings and ensemble prob charts support a transition to MVFR
during early afternoon and potentially VFR by late in the day.
Low pressure lifting up the Ohio Valley could spread showers
and reduced cigs into the southern tier of PA Monday evening.

Outlook...

Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA. Isold
evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.

Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.

Thu...Rain/low cigs likely.

Fri...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Colbert/Bowen
NEAR TERM...Colbert/Bowen
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Colbert
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego/Colbert
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/RXR