Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
449 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

During the winter and spring, the National Weather Service issues a
series of winter and spring Flood Potential Outlooks. These outlooks
estimate the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) across
central Pennsylvania based on a current assessment of the
hydrometeorological factors that contribute to river flooding.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of future river
flooding. It is also important to note that heavy rainfall can
rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall
river flood potential is considered low.

This outlook covers the Susquehanna River Basin including the West
Branch, Juniata, and much of the Middle and Lower Susquehanna
Valley. Also covered are portions of the Upper Allegheny and
Monongahela Basins, including areas in Warren, McKean, Somerset and
Cambria counties.

The flood potential outlook for the period from Thursday, February
29th through Thursday, March 14th, 2024 is NEAR AVERAGE. Here are
the hydrometeorological factors that went into this outlook:

Current flooding...None.
No flooding is occurring in the region at this time.

Recent precipitation..Near to slightly below average.
For the latest precip departures, please see
www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

Snow conditions...Below average north to near average south.
Very little snow exists across central Pennsylvania as February
comes to an end. The only snow cover is across the far northern tier
near the New York state line, where generally an inch or less of snow
is on the ground. Snow data and information sources include the
NOAA/NWS Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
(www.nohrsc.noaa.gov)...the US Army Corps of Engineers...NWS
Cooperative Observers...the Community Rain, Hail and Snow Network
(COCORAHS) and others. Snow depth and basin average water equivalent
estimates can be seen at www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

River Ice...None.
A mild February prevented much in the way of ice development. Follow
river ice conditions at https://www.weather.gov/ctp/riverice.

Stream flow conditions...Near to slightly above average.
For current streamflow conditions, please visit
waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt. Real time water data is available from
the United States Geological Survey by visiting
http://water.usgs.gov.

Soil moisture conditions...Much of central Pennsylvania is near
normal, while the Susq Valley and points east remain above average.
The long term Palmer Drought Severity Index is used to infer deep
soil moisture conditions. The latest chart can be found at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif. For more information, visit
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on
U.S. Monitoring.

Ground Water...Near average.
Real-time USGS groundwater monitoring wells indicate that current
groundwater levels are near average. To see groundwater levels,
visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/gw.

Reservoir Conditions...Near average.
Most major reservoirs across central Pennsylvania are holding
storages that are near average for this time of year.

Future Weather Conditions...
According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) 6-10 day and
8-14 day outlooks, the coming two-week period looks like it should be
accompanied by predominantly above average temperatures and
precipitation. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the latest CPC
outlooks.

Summary of conditions impacting the flood potential for the period
from February 29th to March 14th, 2024:

Current Flooding...None.
Recent Precipitation...Near to slightly below average.
Snow Conditions...Below average north to near average south.
River Ice...None.
Stream Flow Conditions...Near to slightly above average.
Soil Moisture Conditions...Much of central PA is near normal, while
the Susq Valley and points east remain above average.
Ground Water...Near average.
Reservoir Conditions...Near average.
Future Weather Conditions...Above average temperatures and
precipitation.

Again, the overall flood potential for the next two weeks is NEAR
AVERAGE.

The next outlook will be issued on March 14th, 2024.

Additional hydrometeorological information can be found by
visiting the NWS State College webpage at http://weather.gov/ctp.

$$

CJE


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