Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
400 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A robust storm system will approach today, leading to
  thunderstorm development this afternoon, some severe.

- Strong wind gusts to 55 mph are possible in central Kansas
  today.

- The upper level storm system will slowly move across southwest
  Kansas Monday, with falling temperatures, gusty winds and
  light snow.

- Hard freezes will occur Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Deep surface low pressure will form in eastern Colorado today as
an intense upper level system approaches. Low level moisture was
returning northward through the panhandles this morning into a
pre-existent cool air mass, leading to low cloud formation. The
cloud will be very slow to erode today; but there will
certainly be clearing over far southwest Kansas in the afternoon
ahead of a dry intrusion. Mid level cooling with steepening
lapse rates, along with the marginal low level moisture, will
lead to thunderstorm development by 3 pm across far southwest
Kansas from Johnson to Liberal and Hugoton. Storms will move
northeastward during the late afternoon and evening, with 0-6 km
bulk shear values marginally favorable for supercells. The dry
intrusion will be oriented northwest to southeast since the mid
level jet is across Oklahoma, with not as much of a dry surge
into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the upper low. Hence, the
dryline (dry cold front) will arch back to the northwest into
the mid level cold air, resulting in 1000+ j/kg surface based
CAPE in spite of marginal moisture (dewpoints in the 40s). The
main concern with these storms is hail from quarter to golf ball
size, with isolated large hail up to 2" in diameter with the
most intense parts of the strongest storms. An isolated, small
tornado or two can`t be ruled out given southeast surface winds
ahead of the dry intrusion and southwest mid level winds,
leading to 0-1 km SRH values as high as 100-150 m2/s2. As far as
timing goes, expect the storms to reach Meade and Garden City
vicinities by 4-5 pm and Dodge City by 6 pm and then into
central Kansas this evening.

Strong winds are expected today given the deepening surface
cyclone to the west. Current model guidance including ensemble
data indicate wind gusts as high as 55 mph and sustained winds
of 30-40 mph, especially across central Kansas where the low
level jet will be strongest. It is very difficult to get high
wind warning criteria in the moist sector ahead of the dry line.
However, given the fact that we do not issue wind advisories
here in southwest Kansas (they do in areas east, south and
southwest of here), we have no product for high winds unless
damage is expected. Upon collaboration with neighboring offices,
opted to upgrade the high wind watch to a warning for a small
part of central Kansas. It may not technically verify based on
the strict definition; but the public perception is likely that
it will be very windy and the winds will present issues for
high profile vehicles.

As the upper low slowly moves across southwest Kansas Monday,
much colder air will invade the area from the northwest early
Monday, with steady or falling temperatures during the day. The
various models and their ensembles indicate a band of mid level
convergence between 700-550mb in the presence of high humidity
in this layer. Snow will develop in far western Kansas late
Sunday night and spread eastward Monday morning. The snow will
taper off by late afternoon. The EPS and CMCE ensemble suites
show a wide range of snowfall from less than 1" to 3-4". Even
through the ground will be warm prior to the snow, strong north
winds at 25-35 mph will tend to chill the ground quickly,
allowing for snow to accumulate. ECMWF ensemble probabilities
indicate 30-60% chances for 3" of snow or more west of a line
from Liberal to Garden City, but near zero chances of 6" of
more in this same area. Some blowing and drifting of snow is
possible across west central Kansas. Snow amounts will gradually
lessen to the east so that negligible amounts are forecast for
south central Kansas.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A hard freeze will occur Tuesday morning in spite of winds
staying up in the 10-20 mph range. In fact, it will start out
below freezing Monday afternoon. With clearing skies in the wake
of the upper level system, expect lows in the teens northwest to
lower 20s in south central Kansas. Surface high pressure will
park over central Kansas Tuesday and Tuesday night, with
highs only in the 40s to near 50 Tuesday. With light winds and
clear skies Tuesday night, expect lows in the teens to lower
20s.

After Wednesday morning a moderating trend will occur as the
mid level flow becomes more zonal, allowing for surface
pressures to fall in the lee of the Rockies. High temperatures
will increase into the 50s Wednesday and to near 70 by Thursday
and mid to upper 70s by Friday.

There is considerable uncertainty with respect to the evolution
of the next upper level trough over the southwest next weekend.
The ECMWF and CMCE ensembles indicate a positively tilted
system over the southwest, with another trough over the northern
plains providing a source of cooler and dry air. There will
likely be a strong thermal gradient somewhere across the central
plains by late next weekend and into early the following week.
However, the northern stream trough could shunt the bulk of any
precipitation to the south and east of Kansas.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A strong upper level storm system and surface low will across
the plains Sunday and Monday. High winds from the south are
expected ahead of the system Sunday, with gusts to 45 kts.
Thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening in
vicinity of the TAF sites, some severe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are expected late this
afternoon across far southwest Kansas as a dry line passes the
area. This will lead to a wind shift to the southwest, with
strong gusts to 40+ mph, along with low humidity.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ046-065-066-079-081.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074>076-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Finch


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