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000
FXUS63 KDDC 170935
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
435 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A beautiful spring day Wednesday with sunshine, light winds,
  and warm afternoon temperatures.

- A strong cold front is expected early Thursday morning, with
  strong north winds and sharply cooler temperatures Thursday.

- A second strong cold front will reinforce the cool air on
  Saturday, bringing temperatures much below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Infrared satellite imagery and surface observations depicted a
clear and quiet night across SW KS, with light and variable winds.
Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s at sunrise.

A beautiful spring day will be enjoyed Wednesday, under dry quiet
zonal flow aloft. Pressure gradients will be very weak for the
first half of the day, providing light and variable winds. 00z
models agree on weak low pressure near 998 mb developing over SE
Colorado through the afternoon, allowing a modest increase in
SE winds. Kept gusts in the grids < 25 mph; obviously a whole
lot better than Tuesday.

The weak surface cyclone will move from SE Colorado and cross
SW KS Wednesday night, opening the gates for a strong cold
front to plow through. The cold front is expected to be through
all zones no later than 7 am Thursday, followed by impressive
cold air advection and intense north winds. 00z GFS progs 850 mb
temperatures at DDC, for example, to fall from 23C at 1 am
Thursday, to +2C at 1 pm Thursday. This much colder air will
rush in on intense north winds, gusting as high as 50 mph for
the early morning hours and through initial diurnal mixing.
Upstream surface high is impressive, near 1035 mb over Montana 7
am Thursday, and the cooldown on Thursday will be dramatic. A
period of post frontal stratus is expected for several hours
early Thursday, with areas of drizzle, as suggested by 00z NAM`s
drizzle QPF signature. Decreasing winds and decreasing clouds
will allow temperatures to move through the 50s Thursday, but
still a dramatic change from Wednesday`s 80s.

1024 mb surface ridging will build in Friday morning, forcing
temperatures to fall well into the 30s most zones at sunrise.
Cloud cover is expected to interfere with radiational cooling
enough to keep most locations safely above freezing. But with
the growing season underway, will need to monitor for
frost/freeze headlines for Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Easterly upslope boundary layer flow is expected to produce
an overcast cloud deck early Friday, which will assist in
keeping temperatures above freezing in the mid to upper 30s.
High pressure ridging is forecast to weaken a bit, temporarily
on Friday, allowing winds to trend SEly, and temperatures to
moderate a few degrees, with many locations achieving lower 60s.

Model guidance has shown good continuity the past several days,
showing a stronger cold front passage Friday night/early
Saturday with northeast winds and a strong reinforcement of cold
air advection. 00z EPS 850 mb temperature anomaly for Saturday
is impressively cold, -10C across western Kansas, with 850 mb
temperatures near 0C across much of SW KS midday Saturday. Cool
moist easterly upslope flow is expected to keep thick clouds
locked in Saturday, with little sunshine. Temperatures Saturday
afternoon will average about 20 degrees below normal, struggling
to get to 50 at many locations. Indeed, 00z GEFS probability of
maximum temperatures > 50 Saturday afternoon is only 10-20% most
zones. In other words, high confidence Saturday will be cloudy
and unseasonably cool, stuck in the 40s most of the day.

There is a window of opportunity for some desperately needed
light rain during the Saturday time frame, as weak shortwaves
ride over the cold surface air, generating some degree of
overrunning/warm advection rainfall. 00z GEFS/EPS ensemble
members are encouraging, with 70-90% probability of measurable
rainfall across all of SW KS. Remember, this just means at least
0.01 inch. Probability of more useful QPF (>0.10 inch) is only
at 50%. Obviously we will take whatever rain we can get; DDC is
now over 2 inches below normal on rainfall, just since March 1.
Concerned this will evolve into a stratus/drizzle event, with
most locations only get a few hundreths. Kept NBM`s chance
category pops for light rain with no changes, but it is
difficult to tease any rainfall with our miserably dry recent
trends.

During this upcoming cool regime over the weekend, cloud cover
is expected to be thick enough to interfere with radiational
cooling, and prevent damaging freezes. This stated, the coldest
morning appears to be Sunday morning, when models place a
1030 mb surface high directly over SW KS. Cloud cover Sunday
morning will need to be monitored, to determine the need for
frost and/or freeze headlines. Temperatures moderate quickly
early next week, with afternoon temperatures back to near 80 as
soon as Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Excellent flying weather will continue through 18z Wed, with
VFR/SKC and light and variable winds. Winds will trend SEly
after 18z, with modest gusts of 20-23 kts. Light S/SE winds will
prevail after sunset through 06z Thu. An intense cold front
is expected to sweep through the airports 06-09z Thu, with
intense north wind gusts to near 40 kts. Intense north winds are
expected 09-18z Thu, before gradually diminishing. Consensus of
short term models supports a period of post-frontal IFR stratus
at all airports 12-18z Thu, and this trend was followed at the
end of this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures in the 80s will reduce
relative humidity to 12-22% during peak heating Wednesday,
but winds will remain below red flag criteria.

A strong cold front is expected around sunrise Thursday morning,
followed by north winds gusting as high as 50 mph through
midday Thursday. Dramatically cooler air will keep minimum
relative humidity in the 30-40% range.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner