Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Mar 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C5.7/Sn flare at 22/0505 UTC from Region 3615 (S1213E10,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The region continued to gradually grow and
develop maturing penumbra over the course of the period. Newly numbered
Regions 3619 (N17E61, Cao/beta) and 3618 (S20W62, Dao/beta) gradually
developed. The remaining spots were either stable or in decay.

Other activity included two filament eruptions in the vicinity of Region
3614 (N17E18, Dsc/beta) beginning after ~21/1730 UTC. An additional
filament eruption was observed from the SW quadrant beginning after
~21/1830 UTC. Both events have been modeled with the latter being a
clear miss ahead of Earths orbit and the former delivering a glancing
blow by late on 25 Mar.

.Forecast...
Low solar activity levels are expected to continue, with a chance of
M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) 21-23 Mar due primarily to the
flare potential of Region 3615.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background and the greater
than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and greater than 10 MeV proton flux
are expected to remaining below alert threshold over the next three
days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated weakening influences of a CME that left
the Sun on 17 Mar. Total field decreased from 13-13 nT to 8-10 nT. The
Bz component of the IMF began the period in a prolonged southward
deflection reaching -12 nT, but was mostly northward in the latter half
of the period. Solar wind speeds varied between ~320-350 km/s, and phi
was mostly variable as well.

.Forecast...
CME influences are expected to weaken over the course of 22 Mar with a
return to a more ambient, background like solar wind environment on 23
Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels during
the first half of the period.

.Forecast...
Primarily unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue for
the remainder of 22 Mar under waning CME effects. A return to a nominal,
quiet geomagnetic environment is expected by 23 Mar. Active conditions
are likely with an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS
on 24 Mar.


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