Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
404 FXXX12 KWNP 051231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached very high levels. Region 3663 (N26W22, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) was particularly active. It produced the strongest events of the period, an impulsive X1.3/1b flare (R3/Strong) at 05/0601 UTC and a second X1.2/Sn flare (R3/Strong) at 05/1154 UTC. The region also produced three R2 (Moderate) events and 3 R1 (Minor) events, as well as a Tenflare (280 sfu) associated with a C8.8 flare at 05/0317 UTC, in the last 24 hours. Region 3664 (S18E19, Dkc/beta-delta) also produce M-class activity with an M2.3/Sf (R1) flare at 05/0938 UTC. Analysis and modeling of any associated CMEs will be conducted once coronagraph imagery becomes available. Minor growth was observed in both Regions 3663 and 3664. Newly numbered Region 3668 (S17E32, Bxo/beta) was relatively quiet. The remaining active regions were mostly stable or in gradual decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor- Moderate), with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 05-07 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 05-07 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 05-07 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT and the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased throughout the period, from early readings near 370 km/s to ~310 km/s by the periods end. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely to prevail over 05-07 May. A stronger disturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 05 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 06 May due to continued CME activity and CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 07 May with the expected onset of another positive polarity CH HSS.