417
FXUS63 KDLH 152328
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will build overnight into tomorrow with the most
  impactful rain arriving for Thursday AM commute.

- Quick dry-out on Friday before this weekend brings with it
  more chances for rain and showers.

- Active pattern continues into next week with multiple shots of
  rain expected to start the week off.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Short Term:

A gorgeous day across the Northland with plenty of sunshine
will see conditions worsen through the afternoon and evening. An
approaching shortwave currently across the Dakotas will move
through Northern Minnesota tonight and into tomorrow. With it,
we will see an occluded front move along with it into our area
that will be the focus of our rain chances through tomorrow
evening. Rain should overspread from SW to NE through tonight
increasing in coverage and intensity. The worst conditions look
to peak tomorrow morning just in time for the AM commute. There
is a higher chance (30-40%) of heavier showers along the
Northshore where some onshore flow and topographic enhancement
could come into play. The rain should end across our SW counties
around noon and across the Arrowhead and NW Wisconsin later
Thursday Afternoon. Rainfall totals look to end up anywhere from
0.25-0.5 which isolated higher amounts where heavier showers
end up tomorrow.

Extended Range:
Friday will be quite nice with drier conditions expected across
our CWA, though we will have a 20-30% chance for some afternoon
showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a weak upper-level wave
passes by. Highs will be closer to 60-65 along the Northshore
but close to 75-80 degrees further inland. Our next chance for
rain comes from a trough exiting the Canadian Rockies and
swinging eastward along the Canadian/US border through the
weekend. We will see enhanced rain chances on Saturday as a
front moves through the area tied to this trough. While there
wont be the greatest overlap of moisture and shear, we still
could see some stronger storms capable of heavy downpours,
strong gusts and small hail. Sunday will be dry with highs
topping off in the 70s amidst SW flow and mainly sunny
conditions. To begin the workweek, another quick moving
shortwave will move through the Northern Plains providing us
with another shot for showers to start the week. On Tuesday, a
more prominent trough will exit the Rocky Mountains and trek in
our direction. Details are still quite low confidence at this
point but ensembles are suggesting that this could cause a more
prolonged period of precipitation in our vicinity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions currently across the Northland. High clouds are
engulfing the region out ahead of a low pressure system moving out of
the Dakotas. Scattered rain showers will increase through the
evening hours. There will be some instability that builds in
overnight and could lead to a few rumbles of thunder but chances for
thunderstorms remain less then 20%. As the system continues it`s
path east ceilings will lower through the forecast period
eventually down to IFR by tomorrow morning. Rain showers will
begin to taper off tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Easterly to Northeasterly flow will continue into tonight.
Winds could gust up to 25kts and wave heights are capable of
reaching 4-5ft through this evening. As a result a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect and will last until 3am Thursday. Winds
will maintain their easterly component into tomorrow but wind
gusts will decrease by up to 5kts with waves decreasing into the
3-4ft range. No Small Craft Advisory has been issued but trends
will be watched to see if one is needed through tomorrow
morning and early afternoon. Winds will turn more westerly
following a frontal passage Thursday afternoon decreasing winds
into the 5-10kt range with rain showers expected across the
Lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS/KP
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...JDS/KP