Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191115
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
615 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Dry conditions will continue through the short-term forecast
period as high pressure dominates over the Northland. Little in
the way of moisture will lead to abundant sunshine today,
although some high cirrus clouds will briefly move through the
region later today, but shouldn`t put too much of a damper on the
sunshine. Highs today will reach into the lower to middle 50s
across the area, with a high temperature forecast in Duluth of 52
degrees. If this comes to fruition, today will be the first 50+
degree day since October 23, 2017. The only big adjustment made
was adding patchy fog to the forecast for tonight and Friday
morning, mainly over northwest Wisconsin and adjacent areas of
northeast Minnesota. Looks like some good snow melt will occur
today, with a surface high pressure ridge overhead in these areas.
Dew point depressions look favorable, and clear skies, with high
clouds staving off until later in the morning as well, so
confidence in some patchy fog in these areas has increased.

More of the same for Friday, except for increasing warm air
advection as the high departs to southern Lake Michigan. Some high
clouds will linger, with the possibility of some diurnally-driven
cumulus, mainly across our north and west. Highs Friday remain in
the lower to middle 50s, with even warmer temperatures possible
for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A gradual warming trend through the long term forecast period
leading to above-normal temperatures early next week as highs reach
as warm as the 60s! (It was last 60+ in Duluth on Oct 23, 2017,
which would be 182 days if we can reach 60 or warmer on Monday!) Dry
through the weekend then chances for precipitation return next week:
a low chance for light precip Sunday night into Monday, then a
better chance for more widespread precipitation on Tuesday when a
cold front is expected to sweep through the region. Precipitation
will primarily be in the form on rain due to the warmer
temperatures, but snow may mix in especially in far northern
Minnesota depending on the timing of the precipitation. Tuesday into
Wednesday could be breezy in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through today with
winds less than 5 knots. Tonight MVFR to IFR visibilities are
possible at HYR due to fog developing. It is possible BRD and DLH
could also be impacted with lowered visibilities due to fog, but
confidence is much lower outside of northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
INL  55  27  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  54  29  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  51  23  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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