Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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982
FXUS63 KDLH 222013
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
313 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Warm and dry this afternoon under high pressure. A dry, cold
front approaches from the west which has increased the surface
gradient and therefore winds especially over the western portion
of the forecast area. Monday should be another nice and warm day.
Moisture advection increases RH`s tomorrow, so fire weather threat
is less of a concern than it has been today, so do not anticipate
any fire weather headlines. Overall, fairly quiet besides fire
weather concerns this afternoon. Opted to keep the Red Flag
warning up since obs are in the vicinity of meeting criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Tuesday a fairly strong shortwave moves out of the rockies and onto
the plains, along with another that moves across central Canada,
with the forecast area in between.  Ahead of it the forecast area
may see a brief...small chance of precipitation in the mid level
baroclinic zone that moves across the area during the lat night or
early Wednesday time frame.  Moisture appears to be our limiting
factor, and with the better moisture more across the Dakotas, am not
very optimistic that we will get any measurable precipitation.
Temperatures Monday night and Tuesday will be near normal, but a
colder night is expected Tuesday night as a surface ridge builds
across the area.

Wednesday winds turn around to the southwest and we are looking at a
warmer day, despite the colder start in the morning.  On Thursday, a
cold front moves through the area, bringing chances for rain and a
rain/snow mixture beginning late Wednesday night, continuing
Thursday and ending Thursday evening. A wintry mixture is possible
as temperatures are quite warm aloft before turning colder Thursday
evening.

Northwest flow and colder temperatures settle into the area for
Thursday night through Friday night with relatively dry conditions
under a surface ridge.  Conditions moderate into next weekend as an
upper level ridge builds out over the Rockies and High Plains and
general northwest flow continues over the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR through the forecast with gusty winds this afternoon becoming
light this evening as the mixed layer decouples. Expect gusty
winds at INL/HIB and BRD through the afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens across northwest and north-central Minnesota due
to an approaching cold front. Elsewhere winds will remain at or
below 10 knots.

The mixed layer will decouple this evening and gusty winds will
subside per NAM/RAP/GFS guidance. Did introduce low level wind
shear for a few hours as the low level jet sets up. Winds will
remain light through the rest of the forecast as the cold front
weakens as it moves into the region on Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  65  39  53 /   0   0  10  20
INL  45  63  34  50 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  39  66  42  55 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  35  63  38  55 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  38  65  38  52 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010-018.
LS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL



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