Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
833 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Issued at 833 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Even though high pressure was overhead, a northeast flow off of
Lake Superior is sending in clouds from off the lake. Clouds are
also on the increase from the West ahead of the system that will
move South of the region through Wednesday. Last several hours of
the short term hires models have pointed to a dry forecast on
Wednesday. After collaborating with neighboring offices, have
removed pops and weather mention on Wednesday. Made some other
minor changes as well as increasing cloud cover.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

A ridge of high pressure to the north should nudge a sharp vort
max to the south of the Northland heading into Wednesday. Some of
the ensemble guidance glides a little more QPF to the north into
our southern forecast area, but even those members largely keep
the precip shield along the MN/IA border. That is the main weather
maker in the short term. Precip type should be a mix of rain and
snow, but given the shallow nature of the moisture light drizzle
or flurries may be more likely. Either way, little to no
accumulation is expected.

Another item to mention is that models are having difficulty
resolving some of the wind gusts that are being reported at ob
sites. So, manually forced gusts into the range of observations
for this afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Most of the period will have relatively quiet weather with
temperatures warming up to climo.

Beginning Wednesday night, high pressure builds into the region
bringing clearing skies and drier conditions. The warming trend
starts on Thursday with highs reaching the 50s in portions of the
CWA. Temperatures continue to rise with highs warming above climo
ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s by Sunday. Sunday night into
Tuesday, a cold front from a stacked low over Manitoba, Canada dips
down into northeastern Minnesota. Kept slight chance of rain/snow
with this frontal passage. Temperatures slightly decrease on Tuesday
after the front exits the area but remain around climo.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

High pressure is nearby and the forecast starts out with VFR. A
northeast wind off of Lake Superior will bring some low clouds
inland. MVFR cigs will result at all sites but INL. A low pressure
system will move through Iowa on Wednesday and bring some showers
into the vicinity of BRD beginning at 17Z. Timing is difficult as
the distance of the low to the terminals is in question. The
showers will move well south of BRD by 22Z with cigs improving to
VFR at all sites.


DLH  26  38  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
INL  24  45  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  28  41  26  51 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  24  37  24  50 /   0   0  10   0
ASX  26  35  25  48 /   0  10  10   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140.



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