Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1225 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 745 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

The forecast was updated to account for the latest cloud trends.
We increased clouds for several more hours over far northern
Minnesota and over southwest half to third of the Northland. Drier
air will gradually work it`s way across the area causing the
clouds to diminish. There is still a concern some lake induced
clouds will develop along the North Shore down into far western
Lake Superior as the low level flow becomes more easterly tonight.
Delta-T values are favorable for some cloud and possible light
snow but the airmass is quite dry. The RAP continues to indicate
very dry air over the lake through the night and into Friday
morning. We`ll monitor through the night for any possible
cloud development.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Surface and upper level ridging will cover the forecast area
tonight and Friday. A mix of clouds and sun are affecting a large
portion of the region this afternoon. This is due to an upper
level vorticity maxima sliding overhead this afternoon. Look for
the clouds to dissipate later this evening as the vort max
departs. Clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon ahead of
the system that will affect a portion of the Northland Friday
night and Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Upper level ridging remains over the forecast area Friday evening.
However, an approaching upper long wave trof, with embedded
pieces of vorticity, will move into western Minnesota late Friday
night and linger Saturday morning. Meanwhile, its associated
surface low will be moving through Kansas Friday night and into
Missouri Saturday before dissolving. This combination will result
in some mixed precipitation to affect the western third of the
forecast area as early as late Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning. Expect a rain/snow mix initially, changing to all snow
overnight through Saturday morning before ending. The
precipitation may reach as far east as the I35 corridor from Moose
Lake to Rush City, before ending in all areas by Saturday
afternoon. The greatest likelihood for snow accumulation will
roughly be in the Brainerd Lakes region northwest to near Walker,
where 1 to 3 inches of snow is probable. The upper trof washes out
by Saturday afternoon allowing ridging to rebuild across the
region. The ridging prevails through Sunday. Sunday night through
Tuesday finds the region under the influence of a southwest flow
aloft as a long wave trof moves ashore on the West Coast, reaching
the western Great Lakes Tuesday. In response, a surface low
develops in the Four Corners and moves into the Texas panhandle
by Tuesday. An inverted trof from this low will reach the
Northland Sunday night and affect the area through Tuesday. Look
for another mixed precipitation event during this timeframe.
Current thinking is rain and snow, as is typical with Spring
systems. Will hold off on mentioning any amounts for now as
confidence is low.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

An area of high pressure over the Northland this evening has lead to
VFR conditions. Clouds over far northern Minnesota continued to move
very slowly to the southwest with the leading edge dissipating over
the past couple hours. The clouds over the Brainerd
Lakes/Aitkin/Hinckley/Walker areas have diminished and will continue
to do so overnight. There is still some concern that some lake
induced clouds will develop overnight as winds veer to northeast.
However, the RAP and NAM continue to forecast very dry air over Lake
Superior and the latest satellite shows no new cloud development as
of late evening. It`s possible MVFR ceilings could form in spots
around the lake late tonight into Friday. The GFS does forecast
clouds/light precipitation along the North Shore on Friday but this
solution is an outlier.

Easterly winds will be on the increase Friday as mixing deepens and
the gradient tightens between high pressure to the northeast and an
approaching low pressure system. Both the NAM and GFS continue the
trend of slowing the chance for precipitation late into the
Northland Friday and Friday night. We kept any mention of rain/snow
out of KBRD as it does look like it will take longer to develop.


DLH  12  35  20  35 /   0   0  10   0
INL  13  41  19  39 /   0   0  10   0
BRD  19  41  26  39 /   0  10  60  40
HYR  10  42  22  41 /   0   0  10   0
ASX   9  37  20  38 /   0   0   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
     Saturday for LSZ144>147.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Sunday
     for LSZ141>143.



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