Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250522
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1222 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Many things to talk about today, the first is a short wave
ejecting out of a trough coming across the Dakotas. This will tap
into a pool of instability in a weakly sheared environment. Some
storms have already kicked off from this feature, but will mainly
pose a lightning, heavy rain, and small hail threat. There is some
potential for short-lived severe storms, but so far they are
having trouble getting tall enough to get into the hail growth
regime, and are mainly collapsing upon themselves. As the cells
approach Lake Superior they should become more elevated in nature
as there is a strong capped layer around the lake and surrounding
area exacerbated by this mornings` convection.

The rich moisture stream has been causing a thick layer of fog in
and around Lake Superior that is causing a drastic weather effect
to occur. Temperature gradients are approaching a 40 degree
threshold between Buoy 45028 and Cloquet. So a generally cold,
cloudy/foggy miserable day in downtown Duluth while over the hill
folks are probably wishing they had air conditioning.

The upper trough approaches overnight and passes overhead on
Friday. Left best chances for PoPs up north closer to the
strongest forcing in the Euro, but models differ a bit on the
location of the vort max, so that lowers confidence a bit there.

Friday should be warmer than today. Enough instability lingers
for another round of storms to develop in the afternoon some of
which could be severe.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The long term period stays quite active under zonal flow well
embedded in a warm air mass. Afternoon instability should be
enough to kick off convection most days, but the overall
atmosphere is weakly forced being primarily driven by short waves
and an inconsistent meandering sub-tropical jet. Have kept a
variety of low PoPs in the forecast with the main uncertainty in
the timing of features. Sunday is the one day that looks fairly
dry. Temperatures will remain well above normal through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

A complex low pressure system will continue to affect the
Northland throughout the period. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop in association with the system, especially in the afternoon
and early evening on Friday. While conditions are largely expected
to be VFR, there could be some MVFR CIG`s and VSBY`s in association
with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  85  59  84 /  40  30  10  20
INL  61  84  57  80 /  30  30  30  20
BRD  63  87  59  89 /  40  10  10   0
HYR  65  85  58  88 /  50  50  20  20
ASX  62  85  57  79 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTS
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...DAP/JTS



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