Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231642

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Latest deterministic model runs have slowed, or removed, the QPF
for tonight in the western edge of the forecast area. Based on
this latest guidance, have lowered the pops substantially in the
Brainerd Lakes to Walker area. This also resulted in a
lowering of snow amounts to less than one inch. Have updated the
forecast to account for this major change.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

At 345 this morning, skies were mostly clear across the Northland.
The area of clouds that had moved into the Minnesota Arrowhead had
largely dissipated as of this morning. Temperatures varied
considerably across the area, with single digits in portions of
northwest Wisconsin, to the teens and 20s elsewhere.

The focus for today will be cloud cover and temperatures. High
pressure will continue to build into the Lake Superior region
today, resulting in increasing east winds. The strong east winds
will bring cooler temperatures to areas surrounding Lake
Superior, with some areas not getting out of the lower 30s. Winds
will gust in excess of 30 mph, especially at the head of the
lakes region. Overall, we should see a good deal of sunshine today
with highs ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s for most areas.

While high pressure dominates much of the Great Lakes region, an
area of low pressure will bring snow to much of western and
southern Minnesota tonight and Saturday. Model guidance is in
pretty good agreement that the majority of the precipitation will
fall south and west of our CWA, but the Brainerd Lakes area
definitely could see an inch or two of new snow. Gusty east winds
will continue tonight and Saturday, with dry weather expected for
areas north and east of the Brainerd region. Highs on Saturday
will range from the 30s to around 40.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A broad area of high pressure over Ontario will result in a mainly
sunny start to Sunday before clouds increase from west to east. A
chance for rain changing to snow Sunday night before widespread
rain/snow mix spreads across the Northland on Monday, with a quarter
to half inch of precipitation falling Monday. At this point guidance
is leaning towards surface temperatures being warm enough for most
of the precip to fall as rain on Monday afternoon thus limiting
snowfall amounts, with rain changing back to snow Monday evening as
colder air moves in from the west as a cold front moves through the

On the synoptic scale a longwave trough over the Four Corners region
a an amplified ridge over the lower Great Lakes and Northeast will
support a southwesterly flow pattern at mid to upper levels and a
southerly flow pattern at low levels. This will lead to warm air
advecting in up the Mississippi River Valley over the weekend as a
mid-level shortwave ejects out of the northern High Plains towards
the Midwest Sunday into Monday. A weak cold frontal boundary will
develop across the eastern Dakotas Monday associated with the main
surface low developing across the central Great Plains, with an area
of moderate precipitation developing in the warm sector ahead of the
front on Monday afternoon. With the warmer southerly flow, surface
temperatures are expected to climb to near 40 on Monday afternoon
resulting in precipitation falling mainly as rain, with fairly
strong ensemble support for mostly rain. However, there is still the
possibility that surface temperatures do not warm up as much as most
guidance indicates which could result in more of a mix scenario
with wet snow accumulating in some spots, especially for the higher
terrain of the MN Arrowhead.

While cooler air moves in aloft towards mid-week, overall
temperatures will be near to above normal through the rest of the
work week with highs in the 40s. A low chance for light
precipitation towards the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through today before MVFR
conditions develop at BRD and DLH late tonight into Saturday
morning. Clouds will increase from west to east today with
increasing easterly winds of 10-12 knots with gusts in excess of
20 knots possible, especially at DLH. MVFR ceilings are expected
to develop at DLH and along the north shore tonight, with a chance
for ceilings to be as low as IFR. At BRD, snow showers will result
in reduced visibilities and ceilings overnight, with MVFR
conditions expected.


DLH  35  19  34  22 /   0   0  10   0
INL  41  16  38  21 /   0   0  10   0
BRD  41  23  39  25 /  10  10  30   0
HYR  42  19  41  20 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  37  17  37  20 /   0   0   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ144>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ141>143.



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