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000
FXUS63 KDLH 182001
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/snow showers today over northern Minnesota.
  Stronger snow showers possible Friday with colder air.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over the weekend with low
  humidity and gusty winds. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed.

- An area of low pressure will impact the Northland next
  Monday/Tuesday with a wintry mix.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Mixed rain and snow showers will be possible starting this
afternoon around 4 or 5 PM (40% chance). There may be some brief
bursts of heavy snow/sleet at times this evening that could
locally drop visibility to half a mile. Accumulations of a
light dusting at the most as temperatures will be above
freezing. Scattered snow showers persist tonight into Friday
morning (40% chance) with accumulations up to 0.5" possible
(mainly on grassy surfaces, but couldnt rule out a bit of
roadway accumulation). This should all melt Friday morning as
temperatures warm up. Friday afternoon, more snow showers or
mixed rain/sleet/snow showers are expected. Little to no
accumulations with temperatures rising above freezing, but
visibilities could briefly drop to 1/2 to 1/4 mile during the
heaviest snow showers. Breezy WNW winds gusting to 20-30 mph.
Steep low-level lapse rates and strong winds will contribute to
the gustiness of the showers.

Dry air will sag down from the north on Saturday and especially
on Sunday dropping RH`s values into the 20s and possibly teens
while also increasing winds will cause a fair amount of concern
for fire weather this weekend. Thinking Fire Weather Watches
will be in the cards.

There still looks to be a strong signal for a low pressure to
move through Monday night into Tuesday afternoon bringing the
potential for up to a half an inch of QPF. Ptypes may be in play
as the Northland will straddle the line between cold air to the
north and warm air to the south. Overall, model agreement is
fairly good and has really come together in the last couple of
runs. While the ptypes may be an issue, the April warmth should
inhibit much of an impact. Even the NBM 95th pctnl gives at max
3" of snow to Two Harbors where the dynamics and lake effect
max out (again, a low probability occurrence). Generally
speaking it should be a good system to keep us wet as we head
through green up avoiding fire weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR overcast will affect INL for most, if not all, of the
forecast period. MVFR will likely also affect HIB for a brief
period this afternoon, with around 60% confidence. It is
also possible that ceilings may remain just above 3kft there,
however. VFR elsewhere. A cold front and trough passing by
tonight will introduce scattered snow showers, especially at INL
starting this evening, and possibly also affecting DLH/HIB
tonight. INL will have the best chances (30-60%) of seeing snow
showers, and as they pass by, visibility could see some pretty
rapid jumps between VFR and IFR. Couldn`t rule out some
temporary visibility reductions less than 1/2SM. Snow showers
will expand in coverage Friday afternoon with better chances for
temporary IFR visibilities, mainly at INL/HIB/DLH. Breezy west
winds gusting from 20 to 30 kt will persist through the period
as cold air moves into the region.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Gusty southwest winds this afternoon. The winds and waves will
diminish for a time late this afternoon into tonight but ramp up
again Friday from the west. The strongest wind will occur
Friday with gusts of 25 to 35 knots. There is a 20 percent
chance for some gale force gusts around 35 knots.

West or northwest winds will occur Saturday with gusts again
around 25 knots but then subside a bit into Sunday before
increasing again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>143-
     146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe/JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Wolfe