Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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487 FXUS63 KDLH 021751 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of precipitation to affect the area today and tonight with total precipitation amounts of between 0.2" and 0.5". - Warmer Friday. Precip chances loiter along the International Border. - Saturday to be cool and showery followed by warmer and drier conditions for Sunday. - Active pattern returns to our region beginning early next week and continuing through much of the work week with multiple chances for precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Our next wave of precipitation is approaching the Northland this morning as a surface low over southeast Nebraska moves across Iowa into southern Wisconsin by this evening, then continuing to the northeast and weakening. There is a secondary low that develops over North Dakota today, and as the first feature weakens, strengthens and moves slowly northeast tonight and Friday. There is also a strong upper level shortwave that pushes out of Wyoming today and moves northeast across Minnesota tonight. This will produce a healthy round of rainfall that pushes across the forecast area today and tonight, with lingering showers into Friday. The current radar imagery shows the main band of rainfall associated with the southern surface low now moving across southern Minnesota, with a second area over North Dakota, with the developing low. These areas bot will spread northeast across the forecast area today and tonight, with a high probability (>90%) of bringing at least a tenth of an inch to a large portion of the area. However, only parts of northwest Wisconsin have a 50 percent chance of getting a half inch of rainfall by Friday morning. These higher rainfall probabilities are associated with some elevated instability that may produce some rumbles of embedded thunder this evening there. We are also in a general thunder category in the SPC day 1 outlook, and northwest Wisconsin is in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. It will be a chilly, blustery day with highs down in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with the coolest conditions around Lake Superior. We will have wrap-around shower activity along the US/Canada border on Friday, along with a weak mid level baroclinic zone that slides through the area and may bring another period of light rainfall into the area on Friday night into Saturday. Rainfall amounts with this system will be considerably lighter with much less potential for convective elements that could increase rainfall amounts. Friday will be warmer than today with southwest winds instead of the easterlies we expect today, and high temperatures should get into the 60s for a large portion of the area. Saturday to have slightly cooler temperatures. Sunday to be warmer and drier with highs rising into the 60s nearly everywhere, with west to southwest winds. Early next week it appears we will have another fairly potent spring storm system that moves across the central CONUS for much of the upcoming work week. The operational models are keeping Monday daytime mostly dry, though the ensembles are showing some faster members that push precipitation in here earlier, so we have some low confidence pops in for Monday. The large cut off low associated with this system spins over the northern Plains for the early part of the week, but the evolution after that is rather unclear at this point, but we are carrying pops for much of the Monday through Thursday time frame. Temperatures should be on the warmer side for Monday and Tuesday, but then cool off later in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 A broad area of low pressure with two low pressure centers, one over western North Dakota and another over eastern Iowa, will bring light rain, reduced visibility, and lower ceilings to the terminals this afternoon through Friday morning. While 1730Z regional WSR-88D mosaic represents a precipitation-free area over west-central Minnesota, surface observations indicate drizzle and light precipitation with fog, mist, and reduced visibility. Areas of heavier precipitation over northeast MN and northwest WI produced pockets of MVFR visibility and a few IFR ceilings. Think the trend toward lower flight categories will overspread the terminals this afternoon and evening. Look for LIFR conditions to develop at DLH, HIB, and HYR tonight. LLWS will be a concern at BRD and INL overnight as a low-level jet develops to the south and east of the Dakotas low as it moves over northwest Minnesota into northwes32t Ontario. LLWS is possible at HIB, although most guidance has that terminal situated between two stronger axes of winds aloft. As the low pressure systems push northeast of the region Friday morning, expect flight categories to improve. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Northeast winds to gradually increase this morning, with gusts of over 20kts beginning later this morning and continuing into the evening before diminishing once again overnight. As this will create conditions hazardous to small craft, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the southwest arm, North Shore and around the Apostle Islands for late morning through early evening. A trough axis moving across the area will cause these northeast winds to switch to southwest overnight tonight and early Friday as well. On Friday these southwest winds will ramp up again from mid morning until late afternoon, perhaps causing another period of hazardous conditions for small craft. Once the winds decrease on Friday evening, winds will remain less than 15 knots Friday night and Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140>142-147-150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ143>146. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...LE