Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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954 FXUS63 KDLH 300532 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers end in the Arrowhead late tonight. - A couple more systems will bring additional rainfall and embedded thunderstorms this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 This evening and tonight: The low pressure center is making its way over the Northland, and is bringing the last round of showers from this system this afternoon and evening. Additional liquid accumulation will be up to a tenth of an inch across the CWA. Like last night, far northern portions of our area could see some mixed precipitation as lows tonight will be around freezing. However, precipitation will be very light at this point, so little to no frozen accumulations are expected. Tuesday system and Wednesday: We will only see a short break in precipitation before the next shortwave starts skirting across the Northern Plains Tuesday evening and overnight. This will be a fast moving system, but it will have plenty of moisture and could leave up to a half inch in northwest Wisconsin and around a quarter inch in northeast Minnesota. Though CAPE is very low (<100 J/kg) for Tuesday night, can`t rule out a rumble of thunder or two where highest values are present in northwest Wisconsin. Precipitation should end Wednesday morning. Areas that see clearing will have highs in the 60s on Wednesday, and dry air aloft could mix down to the surface. Combined with breezy conditions from the departing system, near critical fire weather conditions are possible particularly across the southern half of our CWA. Thursday and weekend system: A closed upper level low over the northern Rockies will help to develop a larger system for the latter half of the week. This system will bring more widespread rain to the Northland, not unlike the couple we saw this weekend. Strong upper level forcing, gulf moisture and higher instability will lead to more widespread embedded thunderstorms with this system, but MUCAPE is still < 500 J/kg, so no severe weather is expected. This system will lead to on and off precipitation through Friday night before exiting Saturday. Models start to diverge at this point of temperatures aloft, where some show that all precipitation will be rain, while others show that there could be some mixed precipitation. This will need to be monitored as the event gets closer. Also like this past weekend, global models hint at a second weaker Colorado low that will bring a second round of precipitation right after the first system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 IFR sky cover and MVFR to local IFR visibility prevail through 12-15Z across much of the Northland as a low pressure lifting into northwest Ontario keeps these restrictions in place for early Tuesday morning. Skies break up somewhat this afternoon as ceilings lift to SCT/BKN MVFR/VFR after 18Z ahead of the next round of rainfall moving in from the southwest after 23Z Tue. MVFR to IFR conditions return then with that next band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall lasting through the remainder of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Strong winds over the lake today will back to the north and northwest tonight and lighten. Small Craft Advisories are in effect overnight as winds and waves decrease. Winds will increase once again on Wednesday on the back end of a system that will bring us rain on Tuesday, and widespread Small Crafts may be needed again. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ121-140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...NLy MARINE...KML