Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 170918
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
418 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

A frontal boundary is hovering over the Northland this morning
and is causing showers and elevated thunderstorms to develop along
the front. CAPE values are around 500 joules per kilogram, so do
not expect any severe convection with these cells. Since the
storms are training some locations may see up to a quarter or even
a half an inch of rainfall.

After a cold start, a warm front should move north through the
forecast area today intensifying convection over the Northwest
portion of our forecast area closer to a surface low-pressure
system that begins to approach the forecast area late tonight.
However, most of the forecast area will be in a dry slot today as
a warm front lifts northward and moves its associated
precipitation shield into Canada. There will be a sharp gradient
in temperatures where temperatures along the lakeshore may be in
the upper 40s while well inland areas will see the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

An area of light rain showers and possibly a few storms tracks
from west to east across the Northland Friday night into Saturday
bringing much needed rainfall. Then a return to a dry weather
pattern late-weekend into the middle of next week as a broad area
of high pressure builds over the Upper Great Lakes. Highs in the
60s in northern Minnesota behind a cold front, otherwise in the
upper 60s to low 70s throughout the long term period. Lows
approaching the mid 30s on Saturday night then well above freezing
through next week.

On the synoptic scale a broad mid-level longwave trough will track
from west to east across southern Canada late-week into the weekend
with a mid-level shortwave trough embedded in south-southwesterly
flow over the Northern Plains. With strong warm air advection across
the Upper Midwest, the mid-level PVA combined with warm air
advection will lead to broad-scale lift across much of the Upper
Midwest Friday night into Saturday. A cold front will track from
west to east across the region, with precipitation expected to
develop along and ahead of the front. Low level moisture will be
limited initially, which will result in a slow onset of precipitation
on Friday and generally limit precip amounts to around a quarter to
half inch in northern Minnesota, up to a tenth of an inch in
northwest Wisconsin. Late-weekend into next week a broad area of
high pressure builds in with temperatures on the mild side. Relative
humidity values will again fall to around 20 to 30 percent each day,
but limited winds should preclude a fire weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

A cold front draped east to west across MN and WI south of the
terminals has produced a field of northeast winds across the
terminals, sustained in the 10-15kt range with VFR conditions
through at least 18z. After 18z the front moves back north again,
serving as a focus for more showers and thunderstorms. This
convection is expected to affect mainly KDLH, KHIB and KINL. For
now have included only VCTS and will have to wait to see how
things develop before including more details.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  38  69  49 /  20  10   0  30
INL  64  41  75  42 /  50  60  40  70
BRD  72  50  79  51 /  20  10  10  50
HYR  75  49  79  52 /  10   0   0  10
ASX  55  40  74  48 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ142-143-146-
     147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ144-145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE



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