Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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238 FXUS64 KEPZ 080537 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1137 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Warm and breezy to windy conditions last through Wednesday with heightened fire weather. Somewhat lighter winds are expected for the rest of the period other than breezy east winds behind Friday`s backdoor cold front. Slight rain chances return for northeastern areas on Saturday ahead of a disturbance. Temperatures remain near normal into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Breezy and extremely dry conditions are in place this afternoon, making for critical fire weather. Blowing dust is a low concern into the early evening with minor visibility reductions possible in El Paso and points east early this evening. One last dry and very breezy day is expected for tomorrow. Winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph from the west are generally forecast for Wed afternoon, so very similar to Tuesday. Patchy blowing dust has been added to the grids for the afternoon and evening tomorrow in far west TX based on latest dust model guidance. Again, only minor VIS reductions (5 miles) are possible in El Paso and into northern Hudspeth county. On Thursday, a big chunk of the northern Rockies` low breaks off and retrogrades into the Great Basin as a result of a Rex block over the PacNW. Our deep zonal flow weakens, but breezy winds (15-20mph) linger. A backdoor front accompanies the upper low as our winds shift easterly (15-25 mph) Thurs night, bringing in some moisture like what we saw on Saturday. However, dew points only reach the 30s, creeping into the 40s for eastern areas on Saturday. A few showers and storms may develop in the Sacs Sat PM downstream of the upper low which may progress into NM. Rain chances remain very low for the lowlands regardless of how this upper low acts into next week within a weak flow pattern. A quasi- monsoon pattern may set up early in the week with lingering moisture and potential weak ridging nearby. Isolated convection could develop each afternoon as a result over the mountains. Breezy afternoons (10-20 mph) should continue into early next week. Temperatures will be near average through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 VMC through forecast period under west flow at all flight levels. Dry conditions leaving skies clear through Wednesday. Surface winds generally 250-280 at 10-15 knots overnight. Some low-level wind shear with mountaintop winds (FL070) around 30 knots. Winds increase again Wednesday afternoon, 240-270 at 15 to 25 knots. Peak gusts of 35 knots at local terminals. Will need to monitor for blowing dust again mid-afternoon but no major visibility restrictions are anticipated at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Fire weather concerns remain moderate to high through Wednesday with very breezy winds and dry air continuing. The rest of today will be extremely dry in some places (near 5% RH) as westerly winds persist. For Wednesday, RFTIs of 3-6 (near critical to critical) are forecast, so it`s a lower end red flag day. Winds will be nearly identical to Tuesday but with slightly higher humidities. Winds subside a bit from Thursday onward but remaining on the breezy side. Some moisture moves in from the east Friday morning behind a backdoor cold front. A disturbance brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the Sacramentos on Saturday, otherwise mainly dry conditions persist. Mostly elevated fire danger lingers into the weekend as the surface moisture is flushed out. Temperatures will be near or above average through the period as fuels moisten up into the weekend due to the added moisture. Min RHs range from 5-15% through Thursday, then 15-35% east of the Rio Grande Friday and Saturday. Vent rates will be mostly excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 62 89 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 57 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 86 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 60 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 50 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 45 73 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 48 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 48 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 54 87 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 91 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 83 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 44 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 69 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 43 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 46 82 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 74 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 77 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 46 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 46 75 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 46 77 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 84 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 83 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 78 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird