395
FNUS74 KEPZ 282316
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Collins Park Rx...NMSDC USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
516 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Deep dry westerly flow will persist over the Gila through the week,
with the storm track staying well north. This means a generally
sunny week, with no precipitation chances, and very low, and
decreasing RH each afternoon, with poor overnight recoveries.
Temperatures will warm through midweek, with daily highs above the
daily averages. Winds will favor light overnight and mornings, with
west to southwest winds each afternoon. Lighter winds early in the
week will be somewhat breezy in the mid and late week afternoons.
Fire weather conditions will be typical spring dry and somewhat
elevated due to persistent warmth and dryness, but fall short of
critical due to no expected strong wind events.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 8 to 10 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 9 mph increasing to around 12 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (90900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      1      3      3      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............44     54     61     66     67
RH..............43     30     19     16     15
20 ft wind......W 2    S 3    W 8    W 8    SW 10
20 ft wind gust.3      10     16     16     18
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   7200   7200   8000   8000
Transport wind..NW 5   W 9    W 9    W 12   W 12
Haines index....2      2      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18     75     75     91     91
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (78800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........6      6      6      3      3      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............64     55     50     48     45     43
RH..............16     24     28     31     36     39
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 10  SW 7   W 5    W 5    SW 3
20 ft wind gust.20     20     16     10     10     7
Mix hgt (ft)....6600   6600   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 15   W 15   W 11   W 11   W 9    W 9
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..79     79     5      5      4      4
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 7 to 12 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (60300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (121500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........3         2         3         2
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............41        53        64        70
RH..............41        27        15        12
20 FT wind......W 3G8     W 7G16    SW 10G20  SW 12G22
Mix hgt (ft)....4000      4000      7600      8500
Transport wind..W 13      W 13      W 17      W 17
Haines index....2         2         3         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..60        60        105       122
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      VYGD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds
around 11 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Pedro Valenzuela
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412462.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firent.gov