Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
965
FNUS74 KEPZ 132008
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Slaughter Mesa RX, Chiminea Unit...US Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
208 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 MDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Cumulus build-ups and instability showers will remain possible for the
next few hours, largely dissipating after sunset. Winds will
remain light, likely becoming drainage oriented overnight. Tomorrow
is expected to feature weather similar today with more cumulus build-
ups in the afternoon with a slight chance for showers. Any precipitation
will be light. Winds will remain light as well, topping out less than
10 MPH from the northwest to west. Venting will be very good. Although
lightning cannot be entirely ruled out, the threat is very low and
is generally not expected.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly Cloudy (40-50 percent). Isolated to widely
scattered showers late this afternoon and early evening.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......12600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (117900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........63 53
Weather cov.....NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10
LAL.............1 1
Temp............65 65
RH..............21 20
20 ft wind......N 9 N 8
20 ft wind gust.14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....12600 12600
Transport wind..N 10 N 10
Haines index....5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..118 118
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (20-30 percent). A slight chance
for a shower in the early evening.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 7 mph shifting to the
west around 5 mph in the late evening and
overnight, then shifting to the northwest
around 6 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......10700 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (85500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........55 55 55 45 45 45 33 33 33 7 7 7
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............62 60 56 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 46 45
RH..............20 24 30 36 37 39 40 42 43 47 45 45
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...11 11 11 11 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 10
Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..86 86 86 86 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5
Ventrate Cat....GD GD GD GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly
cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of rain
showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......11400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest
around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (24900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (109800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12 12 12 31 31 31 75 75 75 67 67 67
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............45 46 51 56 60 63 64 65 65 65 64 63
RH..............45 43 37 30 26 22 21 21 22 24 24 24
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 10 10 10 14 14 14 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW W W W W SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..25 25 25 25 95 95 95 95 110 110 110 110
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Northwest winds around 7 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
West winds around 9 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414008.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov