Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
000
FXUS64 KEWX 271129
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
629 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
An upper level trough will move overhead today. A surface boundary
moving west near the Rio Grande early this morning will reverse
course and move back east aided by the upper level trough this
afternoon. These features will generate isolated to widely scattered
showers. Steep mid level lapse rates (8.5 C/km) and elevated
instability (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) at peak heating should allow
for isolated thunderstorms along and east of the surface boundary
this afternoon into evening. There is a potential for them to be
strong to severe over our Central Texas counties. Meanwhile,
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue west of
the surface boundary. See the Fire Weather Section below. There will
be enough cloudiness to keep temperatures below normal.
Lighter winds, low dewpoints, and clearing skies enable efficient
radiational cooling for well below normal low temperatures tonight.
Southerly winds return on Thursday, however moisture and temperature
recovery will be delayed until after the short term. High
temperatures remain below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The long term period will be dominated by zonal flow aloft and
southeasterly flow in the low levels through the weekend. This will
mean dry weather with warming temperatures. Low temperatures Friday
will be near normal while highs will be a few degrees above normal.
Temperatures will increase a few degrees each day reaching their peak
Monday when both lows and highs will be well above normal. Highs
Monday may approach records over the western half of the CWA where
they will range from the upper 80s to upper 90s. A pattern change
will begin during the day Monday as an upper level trough moves
through the southwestern states and brings southwesterly flow over
TX. At the surface a cold front will move through west TX reaching
our western border by the evening. The front will move through our
CWA Monday night and bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area. Models show no rain chances for the Rio Grande
and southern portion of the CWA. Cooler air will move in behind the
front and highs Tuesday will be around ten degrees lower than Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
VFR flying conditions prevail with CIGs above FL060 today and mainly
SKC tonight through Thursday morning. Expect a round of -RA across
much of the area this morning and went with prevailing -RA at
KSAT/KSSF and VCSH at KAUS/KDRT. Expect a round of SHRA/TSRA mid
afternoon into evening across northeastern areas and have VCTS at
KAUS with VCSH at KSAT. Later forecasts may have to go prevailing
based on radar and model trends. At the I-35 sites, VRBL winds less
than 5 KTs, become southerly at 7 to 11 KTs, then VRBL this evening,
and finally southerly on Thursday. At KDRT, easterly winds 5 KTs turn
southerly mid morning, then westerly at 10 to 18 KTs with gusts to
25 KTs this afternoon, then VRBL 5 KTs tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Dry and breezy conditions continue across western areas of South
Central Texas in the short term. Minimum humidities in the teens to
lower 20s are expected each afternoon. West-northwest winds at 10 to
20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are expected today, then southeast at 10
to 15 mph on Thursday. Fire danger and fuel moistures (dryness, 10
and 100 hour fuels) focus on Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney counties
where another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be issued for
today and possible for Thursday. However, there are chances of
wetting rains early this morning that may provide some relief.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 71 48 77 54 / 30 20 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 44 77 53 / 30 20 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 46 79 53 / 30 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 69 45 76 53 / 30 20 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 81 49 86 58 / 10 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 69 44 76 53 / 30 20 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 73 45 82 51 / 40 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 71 44 77 52 / 30 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 47 75 54 / 30 20 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 72 48 79 54 / 40 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 73 48 80 55 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04