Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 200236
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
936 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Upper level ridge over the western Dakotas will shift into the
eastern Dakotas by morning. Weak return flow will occur at the
surface.

Lowered temps a bit in the southwest zones for tonight. Otherwise
little change to the afternoon package. Will keep patchy fog in the
far west zones later tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Tweaked wind and sky for tonight to match current conditions. No
other changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Mid/upper level ridging dominates pattern across the northern
plains aloft, with surface high pressure across our CWA.
Temperatures (as anticipated) have been at least as warm and in
most locations warmer than yesterday, with some locations near
60F. The upper level ridge shifts eastward some, which supports
further moderation of the air mass aloft. Fog/stratus may develop
in central ND just west of our CWA by Friday morning (and possibly
into our west), and additional cloud cover is shown to slide
eastward towards the Red River Valley. Clearing appears to be
favored in the later afternoon. This may result in highs "only" as
warm as today despite anticipated WAA aloft. If there is more
clearing/less opaque cloud cover we may see highs even warmer
Friday than today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A quiet weather pattern expected through most of the forecast
period. Sat/Sun look to be pcpn free with highs in the 50s Sat with
southerly winds prevailing before a boost in the 60s many areas Sun
as wind swings around more to the SW. A cold front would look to
wash out as it approaches from the north and west later Sun yielding
only slight POP chances. 500mb flow brings a strengthening shortwave
across the Northern Rockies into the Plains Tuesday. With it clouds
and cooler temps along with rain chances move into the area. Highs
will be a bit lower with the 50s for the middle of the week. EC and
GEFS ensembles/plumes show that the most likely rainfall amounts
across the FA range from a tenth to a third of an inch with one
member of the GEFS suite remaining high, a spike to just short of
one inch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Satellite loop indicated a cumulus field over far northeast ND and
another cumulus field over the far southern Red River Valley. Both
filed were in the 50 to 65 hundred ft range. Cumulus was starting to
dissipate. Expect cumulus to continue to dissipate with sunset. Some
solid patches of clouds may remain over the far northern valley
this evening and shift into southern MAN. VFR conditions are
expected for overnight and Fri. However patchy fog will be possible
late tonight and Sat morning over the far western zones.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Little to no snow cover remains across the forecast area other
than along the Goose River, portions of the Sheyenne, and a
small area in northwest Minnesota (according to satellite imagery
and ground observations). Therefore, most of the impacts from
winter precipitation are now making their way into area rivers and
streams.

Minor flooding remains the main threat for most points on the
mainstem Red River along with its tributaries. At this time, the
exception appears to be Oslo which has the greatest chance of
reaching moderate flood. Note that current river forecasts do not
take into account the possibility for any ice jamming which could
contribute to higher river levels than forecast. No precipitation
is expected through the weekend which should allow river levels
in the southern Red River Valley to begin to level off or even
decline.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JH
HYDROLOGY...Lee


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.