Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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917
FXUS63 KFGF 170304
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1004 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

HRRR keeps any fog at bay. So will leave mention out. NAMNest does
have some fog in the far southern RRV but it is the only one. Thus
confidence remains low.

UPDATE Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Skies clear over the forecast area at 2330z. Fcst in good shape
and no changes needed. Will monitor for any fog potential in the
southern fcst area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Temperatures and then the onset of precipitation Tuesday afternoon
will be the main concern for the period.

A brief quiet spell between systems tonight as the upper ridge
axis moves into the Plains. Skies will be mostly clear as the
clouds that have been hanging around our far eastern tier finally
pull eastward, and before the next round starts to move in. Winds
will shift around to an east to southeasterly direction as low
pressure develops over WY later tonight. Think there will be a bit
of mixing to offset clear skies. Have low staying in the 20s
across much of the CWA, with near 20 in the areas with more snow
cover. A couple of the high resolution models develop some fog
over southeastern ND where winds will be a bit lower, but am not
confident enough to include in the grids at this point. Will
monitor for an fog development. Think there will be enough
sunshine tomorrow to get into the mid to upper 40s in areas where
there is less snow, slightly cooler in the west central and
southeastern CWA with more white stuff hanging around.

Tomorrow, the next upper trough will begin to approach the western
Dakotas, with the main surface low well to the south over the
Central Plains. Southeast to east winds will continue to increase,
and several of the global models break out some light precip out
ahead of the main system and moving into our far western counties
later Tuesday afternoon. Think that it will take a while for
things to saturate, but can`t rule out a few sprinkles reaching
the ground before 00Z Wednesday. Included some low POPs in the
western Devils Lake Basin late Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Main body of the low pressure system looks to track south of the
area. Models in general agreement as to placement and movement. The
system is still forecast to bring a chance for a wintry mix late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Precipitation type will
vary based on temperatures and time of day, but overall any snow
amounts will be on the light side.  Some light freezing
precipitation is possible but not expected to be widespread.

Behind the low...the ridge rebounds by Thursday and drier
conditions...along with warmer temperatures...will be on tap through
the weekend.  Values are expected to be mainly in the upper 40s to
mid 50s...which is closer to climatological norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR thru the pd. A few fog patches may occur BJI/FAR areas but
attm confidence is low on coverage.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Riddle



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