Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Good band of rain from Valley City through Fargo and up towards
Mahnomen and Fosston, associated with frontogenesis band. The
band should slowly push southeastward during the next few hours,
with the RAP having a decent handle on what is currently going on.
Several hundredths of an inch will be possible across
southeastern ND and west central MN. Lowered temps a bit in the
northwestern CWA where skies have cleared out and readings
bottomed out.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Timing and how much precipitation reaches the ground this morning
will be the main issue for the period.

Water vapor loop shows the upper trough rotating into western SD,
with light rain across central ND/SD. There have been a few radar
returns approaching the far western counties, but only a bit of
drizzle reported at Valley City AWOS so far and web cam shows what
is reaching the ground isn`t very impressive. High resolution
models have the chances of anything measurable moving into our
southwestern counties holding off until 09-12Z time frame, and
this seems pretty reasonable. Amounts should be pretty light, in
the 0.1 inches or lower range with dry north winds. The
frontogenesis quickly moves south into SD by 18Z, and the synoptic
forcing from the upper low will also be over SD. Have the rain
quickly tapering off by mid-day.

For the northern two-thirds of the CWA, conditions will remain dry
but cool with cold air advection for much of the day. Think we
will top out in the 50s even with some sunshine this afternoon.
Tonight should be pretty quiet with high pressure moving across
the area. By tomorrow morning, a trough developing to our
northwest will bring increasing southwesterly surface winds. This
will help keep temps in the 30s across the western and central
parts of the CWA, but the east will see a bit cooler readings in
the 20s with lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Fire weather will once again be a concern for Wednesday afternoon as
pressure falls ahead of an approaching frontal trough will increase
southwesterly winds. Sustained winds at 15 to 20 mph are likely with
occasional gusts up to 30 mph across the northeastern quadrant of
North Dakota. These winds, combined with warm temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s, relative humidities in the 20s to low 30s, and
morning sun will be favorable for near critical fire weather

As a cold front associated with a Canadian low pushes southeastward
into the region Wednesday night and into Thursday morning winds will
shift to north/northwesterly wind light rain possible across
northwestern Minnesota and perhaps the Red River Valley. The cool
airmass moving into the region behind this front will keep afternoon
temperatures in the low to mid 50s with breezy northerly winds.

Warm and calm weather returns for the end of the work week and the
weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the region. By late
Sunday and into Monday a broad southwesterly flow regime is expected
to set up over the central US as a longwave trough becomes
established over the western CONUS. While most numerical guidance
suggests a more active weather pattern for early next week, model-to-
model and run-to-run differences give low confidence in exact
precipitation chances, amounts, and placement. However, this general
trend has been relatively consistent so the forecast will have to be
monitored for further rain chances early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

All sites currently VFR across the CWA, with light rain at KFAR
and KBJI. So far no reductions to visibility or lower ceilings,
but not out of the question at KFAR so included in a TEMPO group.
Skies will clear from northwest to southeast by mid-day. Winds
will be from the north at around 10 kts, around 15 to 20 at KFAR.
Winds will drop off this evening, eventually shifting around to
the southwest at KDVL late in the period.


Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The most impactful flooding is ongoing along the Goose River at
Hillsboro, the Snake river at Alvarado, and the Red River at Oslo,
which are all at moderate flood stage. Logging activity in the
vicinity of Hillsboro has caused the recent rise up to moderate. A
slight rise in water level is expected over the next 24 hours
before beginning to drop back down as upstream gauges show
declining water levels.

Alvarado is expected to drop below moderate flood stage within the
next 48 hours, although recent small jumps in water level suggest
that this site will have to be monitored for short term rises until
it falls below moderate stage. Oslo is forecast to remain in
moderate flood stage through the next seven days.

All other river forecast points remain on track and are either at or
below minor flood stage. Expected precipitation over the next three
days will likely not significantly contribute to any additional




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