Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201629
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

No changes for the morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Temperatures will be the main issue for the period.

Cirrus continues to move into the region from the southwest thanks
to the large upper level low spinning over the Four Corners
region. Surface high pressure will move off to the east, with a
trough developing out over the Rockies and south to southeasterly
winds over our CWA. Warm air advection at low levels will be
offset by increased high clouds, so have highs today near or only
a degree more than yesterday`s. Will continue to keep some cooler
readings in the upper 40s in east central ND where there is
lingering snow cover, with mid 50s to low 60s elsewhere.

Not much will change into tonight, with the main upper low
remaining well to our south and the northern branch of the split flow
building a weak ridge over the Northern Plains. A few of the
ensemble members try to bring some precip into southwestern ND,
but they then trend back to the south by Saturday morning, and all
the deterministic runs keep us dry. Should be a quiet night
tonight with temperatures in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Surface high pressure will dominate over the region through the
weekend brining calm weather. A slight warming trend will continue
during this period with afternoon highs in the upper 50s and low 60s
across the region. As an upper level low approaches from the west,
lee troughing along the northern Rockies will favor strengthening
southerly flow for late Saturday and Sunday. Southerly winds at 10
to 15 mph could gust up to 20-25 mph.

As the lee low moves off into central Canada a trailing trough/weak
cold front will push through the region Sunday night/early Monday.
However, with a lack of any appreciable moisture a dry frontal
passage is expected.

Rain chances return to the forecast Monday night and into Tuesday as
a weak upper level low moves through the northern Plains. Although a
few snowflakes may mix in during the overnight hours, primarily rain
is expected. With surface temperatures forecast to be well above
freezing, so winter weather impacts are not expected.

Weak northwesterly flow and surface ridging favor a drier pattern
for the remainder of the week with temperatures in the 50s and 60s
to continue. Light rain chances enter the forecast for north central
Minnesota on Friday, but confidence in precip remains low at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period across eastern
ND and northwest MN. Light winds 10 mph or less will tend to
prevail from the south through most of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...DJR



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