Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1025 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Minor update to adjust fog coverage down and remove "Areas"
mention. Latest high resolution guidance has pulled back on fog
signal and there is much less consensus on where fog may develop
if it does. There is still a potential for ground fog/patch dense,
but it`s hard to say where in the Red River Valley this will


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

High pressure has been persistent across the area and will continue
to be through Saturday. While a low pressure system passes to the
south, skies will remain on the clear to partly cloudy side in most
areas for the next 24 hours. However, there may be some low
clouds/fog developing late tonight in the west as southerly winds
help strengthen the low level inversion. Bufkit NAM data point
toward this potential as does the LAV and also some of the hi-
res models. The main threat for fog will be over eastern ND and
east across the Red River Valley on the MN side.

Highs tomorrow should be a bit warmer than today...with more 40s
expected on the Minnesota side.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Split flow upper pattern with ridge over the northern plains will
transition to a more unified flow regime by the middle to end of
next week. A couple of upper lows will be evident on Sun into Mon,
one digging through the southern plains with the other farther north
associated with a wave that will create pcpn over the forecast area.
Milder air out ahead will make pcpn type a concern Sun night into
early Mon with warmer air and erosion of ice aloft leading to
possible FZRA impacts Mon morning. Exact timing and placement
uncertain at this time but eventual cooling of column and inverted
trough will lead to an all snow situation for much of the afternoon
into Mon night.

Lingering light snow and flurries ending Tue with omega type upper
pattern developing mid to late week. Our area will be under the
upper ridge region likely boosting temps to near or above 40 south
of Highway 2. The next system will approach the region late next
week and again looks to feature a combination of rain/snow/mixed


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail during the first 6 hours of the TAF
period. Guidance continues to show stratus/fog potential as
southerly winds off the surface bring warmer air aloft over the
Red River Valley and surface winds remain light. Fog/status can`t
be completely ruled out at most TAF sites in eastern North
Dakota/northwest Minnesota. Strongest consensus is on possible
IFR (or even LIFR) conditions developing at KGFK/KFAR for a brief
period of time around 12Z, and this was where we continue to keep
a mention in the TAFs. I kept IFR mention in place, but am not
confident enough at this range to prevail lower conditions.




SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...DJR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.