Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
859 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 859 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Showers and thunderstorms have fired to the south of the FA, down
around Sioux Falls. There are some pretty decent echoes down
there, as well as some extending north and northeast from Huron
SD. These echoes northeast of Huron will have to be monitored, as
several of the high resolution models show this approaching the
far southern Red River Valley around midnight, before shifting it
southward again. However, most of it does appear to remain just
to the south of the FA. Therefore, no changes are planned to the
forecast at this point. There is a steadier band of snow in our
western FA, along a line from Jamestown to Cooperstown to Devils
Lake. Valley City web cam shows a dusting now, with web cams at
Cooperstown and Devils Lake showing some decent sized flakes of
snow. This band does appear to be fairly thin and is moving
steadily to the east. Therefore still think snow totals that were
readjusted earlier remain on track. Wind speeds in the Devils
Lake region have decreased, so removed any mention of blowing and
drifting snow there too.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Challenging situation continues with lower level dry air
continuing to win out. Decent radar returns have persisted across
the western and southern forecast area for several hours now but
obs, webcams, and public reports all have indicated very little
reaching the ground. Finally starting to see some reductions in
visibility in both observations and on webcams across the Devils
Lake basin and James River Valley. However, did cut down snow
amounts (and adjusted headlines accordingly) with nothing really
accumulating yet up to this point. Based on upstream obs and
current radar, expecting the far western forecast area (Canadian
border down through the Devils Lake basin and into the Valley City
area) to see the greatest impacts so have kept the Winter Storm
Warning going for these areas.

Conditions look to gradually improve from west to east Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The next round of wintry weather arrives on Saturday night.
Currently expecting that it will start as snow before
transitioning to rain during the day on Sunday. Some freezing rain
is possible Sunday morning with warmer 850 mb temperatures near
the freezing point. There will be yet another round of wintry
weather Sunday night into Monday night. This will also likely
contain a wintry mix of precipitation with temperatures near
freezing through the period.

There is potential for another system to move in later in the work
week but there is still disagreement between model guidance on
timing and location. The GFS, NAM, and CMC all agree though that
this will be a lower impact event.

Seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures are expected though
this period. Warmer temperatures are expected in the early part of
the work week with cooler temperatures expected later in the work


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Again, conditions are better at this point than they were expected
to be. KDVL is the only TAF site dealing with issues from the
falling snow. However, by mid to late evening, KGFK/KFAR may begin
to see some pcpn. Thinking that some pcpn will linger at the TAFs
into the early Saturday morning hours.


ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001>003-



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