Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230816
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
316 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Precipitation moving in tonight/tomorrow will be the main
challenge for the period.

A weak surface trough currently extending from the northern Red
River Valley into south central ND will push southeastward today,
with a weak cold front dropping down behind it. There are some
narrow areas of cloud cover along the trough axis and cold front,
but not much behind it until clouds start moving in from MT ahead
of the next trough. Think we will get a period of sunshine, which
should offset the cold air advection behind the front a bit. Temps
in the northwestern CWA where the front will pass through first
will be knocked back a bit into the 50s, but think the rest of the
CWA will see another day with sunshine and thermal ridging out
ahead of the front.

Tonight, the upper trough moving through the Northern Rockies will
dig into western SD, and the cold front will push southward
through the CWA. The bulk of the synoptic lift will be to our
south, but models have a fair amount of mid level frontogenesis
clipping our southwestern counties tonight and tomorrow morning.
There seems to be better model agreement on bringing precip into
our southern counties, so bumped up POPs a bit to likely category
in our southwest. Precip amounts will be generally under a tenth
of an inch and temps will remain above freezing, so precip type
will be light rain. The clouds and precip will help keep temps
from falling too much overnight in the 40s across the southern CWA
with 30s in the less cloudy north. Readings will not rise much on
Tuesday as cold air advection continues, staying in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

South to southwesterly winds are expected to pick up during the day
on Wednesday as a surface high gradually shifts south into the
central Plains and a surface trough associated with a Canadian low
begins to move into the region. With afternoon relative humidity
values dropping into the upper 20s and low 30s near critical fire
weather conditions will be a concern across northeastern North
Dakota.

Rain chances increase Wednesday night and into Thursday morning as
the trough/weak cold front pushes to the southeast. While precip is
expected to be scattered, northwestern MN will see the best chance
for rain accumulation. Northwesterly winds will pick up to 15 to 20
mph with possible gusts up to 25-30 mph behind this frontal passage
during the day on Thursday. Despite the strong winds, recent
precipitation and higher RH values will mitigate most fire weather
concerns. The push of colder air into the region will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 50s across the region.

Warm and calm weather returns for Friday and into the weekend with
temperatures climbing into the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN. Rain may begin to move into far
southeast ND or west central MN late in the TAF period, but
chances were too low (higher uncertainty) to include in any TAFs.
Winds have been slower to decrease at KFAR and KTVF, but should
drop below 12kt by valid TAF time (06Z). Prevailing winds should
shift behind a cold front to the west-northwest and remain 5-10kt
through the rest of the TAF period.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Moderate flooding continues for the Red River at Oslo and the Snake
River at Alvarado. Alvarado is expected to remain in Moderate flood
stage through tomorrow and in minor stage until mid week. Meanwhile,
Oslo is expected to remain in moderate flood stage through the
upcoming week.

Minor flooding continues across the central and northern Valley with
Grand Forks, Hillsboro, Hallock, Warren, Drayton, and Pembina either
currently in minor flood stage or will reach minor flood stage in
the coming days. The only tributary in the southern Valley currently
at flood stage is Enderlin, but is expected to recede to action
stage by mid week.

Upcoming precipitation chances Tuesday and Thursday this week do not
show significant QPF signals and so are not expected to contribute
significantly to river rise during the upcoming week.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...DJR
HYDROLOGY...AM


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