000
FXUS63 KFGF 192327
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
627 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous snow showers this evening, mainly along
  and east of the Red River. Brief reductions to below 1 mile
  visibility at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Water vapor loop continues to show several vorts rotating around
the upper low over Ontario, with one moving through northwestern
MN currently and likely helping with our current round of snow
showers in that area. Another weak shortwave/vort max is still
upstream in southern Manitoba. With continued forcing and some
weak instability, see little reason for the snow shower activity
to go away anytime before sunset. Snow squall parameter is
pretty high during the 21Z time period according to some model
solutions, although most of our activity has all been cellular
in nature so far so will continue to handle the impacts with
SPS. Snow shower activity should taper off quickly between 03
and 06Z as we lose the weak instability and the weak shortwave
moves further down into the Plains.

Saturday should see some diminishing winds as surface high
pressure builds in and upper ridging brings a slight warming
trend. Warming will continue into Sunday and afternoon RH values
in a few spots in northwestern MN could get close to 25 percent,
which could cause fire weather issues in the drought stricken
portions of that state. However, Winds will be out of the west
at around 10 mph and are not expected to cause problems.

An upper trough coming out into the Northern Plains on Monday
and then pushing into the Great Lakes on Tuesday is expected to
bring some light precipitation to most of the region for the
first part of the work week. This time temperature profiles look
to be staying favorable for rain. R and M climate percentiles
do not show a particularly strong wet signal, and probabilities
for more than a quarter of an inch of rain are less than 10
percent. After a bit of a break Wednesday and Thursday, there
are signs of another system for late week but predictability is
even lower for that system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Categories will vary greatly through much of the TAF period in
response to continued scattered snow shower activity. CIGs are
generally in the MVFR category for the most part, with
occasional VFR during cloud breaks and IFR during snow showers.
Visibility has been as low as 1/4 mile very briefly; however,
most visibility reductions should be in the 2 to 4 SM range
during brief periods of heavier snow. Look for coverage to
diminish as temperatures cool this evening and convection
becomes more isolated. Look for improved conditions heading into
Saturday, with VFR conditions expected across much of the area
by mid morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...