Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
701 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Temperatures have dipped a bit more than originally anticipated
this morning, which will have an impact on highs since expect
clouds to stick around throughout the day. Lowered highs a bit
into the lower 30s. Light snow continues across the region.
Continue to think there will be some melting off of the pavement
once we get a high enough sun angle as road temperature models
show a quick rise today even with a lot of cloud cover.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Snow chances and amounts remain the main issue for the period.

Water vapor loop shows one shortwave trough over eastern SD moving
into MN, with a reinforcing shortwave digging towards ND from the
northwest. The weak inverted surface trough will continue to
slowly drift over the CWA today before washing out. A broad area
of lift will continue across the region today, with light snow
chances for much of the day. Snow falling currently is pretty
light, although with road temperatures dropping it is finally
starting to stick and make things slippery. Expecting maybe
another inch or two of accumulation, and there will be an impact
this morning of slick roads before temperatures warm back up this
afternoon into the low to mid 30s. Think that daylight hours will
allow melting on road surfaces so impacts later today should be
pretty minimal.

Tonight, high resolution models have snow tapering off in the
evening although some of the global runs keep some light QPF over
our area a bit longer. Think that whatever we get will not be much
at all so have POPs ending by midnight although a few flurries
could linger beyond that. Temps should stay in the 20s across much
of the forecast area with clouds and southerly winds starting to
pick up ahead of the next trough, but some teens will be possible
in the far eastern counties with a drier and cooler air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

12Z Wed - 12Z Fri

Upper level trough over northeast MT will exit the area Wed morning.
Low pops were added to parts of northern MN. Otherwise relatively
quiet period with northwest flow aloft over the area as upper ridge
builds over the Rockies.

Fri - Mon

Long wave trough off the Pacific northwest will extend from MAN to
the Desert southwest by Tue. Long wave ridge over the Rockies will
shift south and east to the Mid Atlantic states by Tue. Flow aloft
remains split with northern stream over Canada and southern stream
over the states.

Significant system is forecast for Fri and Sat. Precipitable water
rises near three quarters of an inch.

Little change to high temperatures from yesterday. Highs were
increased a degree or less for Fri and Sun. No change to Sat and


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Conditions vary from VFR to IFR with stratus and snow across the
region. Most of the more substantial snow seems to be along the
Red River and short range models have it pushing eastward this
morning, but cannot rule out flurries pretty much anywhere in the
forecast area. Snow is very light so kept visibilities 2-5SM or
higher. Some patchy fog is possible but has been mostly south and
west of the TAF sites so far. Have MVFR or lower conditions
continuing into this evening, before dipping back down to IFR.
Winds will be from the east to northeast at less than 12 kts,
then light and variable, then southerly by the end of the period.




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