922
FXUS65 KFGZ 190524
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1024 PM MST Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue over the weekend
with a slight cool down next week. Look for gusty afternoon winds
each day, strongest on Monday with the passing of a dry weather
disturbance.

&&

.UPDATE...Quiet weather is forecast tonight as southwest winds
continue to weaken and skies clear. The exception is for areas
downwind of the Wildcat Fire, where smoke and haze are expected to
continue. This includes locations northeast of Scottsdale to the
Payson area and possibly to Winslow. Tonight`s smoke and haze
forecast was updated with the latest high resolution guidance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /443 PM MST/...A pretty typical mid-May weather
pattern is setting up across the region with gusty winds each day
and mostly dry conditions. A weak trough approaching this
afternoon has resulted in southwest winds 10-20 mph gusting 25-35
mph. Just a few mid and high clouds but dry weather prevails.
Sunday`s winds and temperatures will be similar to today, but
skies will be mostly sunny.

Monday is shaping up to be the windiest day of the week as a
stronger trough crosses the region. Sustained southwest winds of
20-30 mph with gusts 35-55 mph are forecast, strongest just north
of the Mogollon Rim including the Little Colorado River Valley
and portions of northeast Arizona. Low daytime humidity will also
combine with the winds and lead to critical fire weather conditions.
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued Monday for areas where fuels
have dried to critical levels. As the trough crosses the area
later Monday afternoon and evening, there is low chance (<10%) of
a light shower or sprinkle but most areas will remain dry.

Tuesday through Friday - the trough moves eastward Tuesday, with
some lingering breeziness especially in east central AZ. Another
low is forecast to move from the Pac NW Wednesday to the northern
Plains Friday. While this system will remain well north of AZ, it
could kick up our winds again Thu/Fri afternoons but confidence
is low right now. Otherwise, dry and mild weather is expected
through the period, with daily high temperatures 2-5 degrees
cooler than normal. Lows will also be cooler than normal Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings with such a dry air mass. High country
gardeners need to pay attention to the forecast as below freezing
temperatures are a possibility for the usual cold spots including
Flagstaff, Bellemont/Parks, Tusayan.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 19/06Z through Monday 20/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Light winds overnight becoming
southwest 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts after 16Z Sunday. Winds
decrease again after 02Z Monday. Local visibility reductions from
wildfire smoke are possible, especially near KPAN.

OUTLOOK...Monday 20/06Z through Wednesday 22/06Z...Stronger
southwest winds 20-30 kts with gusts from 35-45 kts develop on
Monday. Winds turn west to northwest Tuesday at 10-20 kts gusting
to 25 kts. VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday...Dry and
breezy weather will continue through the weekend with critical fire
weather conditions expected on Monday. Look for southwest winds 10-
20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph on Sunday, increasing to 20-30 mph
with gusts to 50 mph on Monday. Minimum RH values between 5-15%. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday over parts of northern
Arizona.

Tuesday through Thursday...Winds will decrease on Tuesday but remain
breezy with minimum RH 5-15% each day. Expect winds 10-20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ107>110-112>114-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff