Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 232011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
311 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

April showers (rain not snow) are on the way! The next measurable
precipitation arrives tonight into Tuesday as a shortwave currently
over the Northern Plains translates southeast into the Dakotas.
Latest model runs place the highest QPF (0.10"-0.60") along and west
of the I-29 corridor. Thermal profiles suggest a deep and rich BL
moisture along and west of the James River, starting in the
nighttime and continuing through the day on Tuesday. With that
said, better chances fall across southeast SD, likely along the
Missouri river valley; albeit areas along and east of I-29 could
see sprinkles/very light rain. Most of the instability remains
farther south of the forecast area, therefore only rain chances
are anticipated.

Scattered showers will begin to move across the MO river after 07Z
Tuesday, then spreading east-southeast across southeast South Dakota
throughout the day, before tapering off early in the evening hours.
With increasing clouds and showers, Tuesday will mainly in the 50s
to mid 60s over northwest Iowa.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

A surface ridge settles in by Wednesday, leaving the region dry
with plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures. Highs will reach
the upper 50s and 60s.

A weak disturbance and associated cold front will move southeast
from North Dakota into Iowa by Thursday. Looks to be a fast-moving
system, therefore not much is expected in terms of precipitation. As
for now, better chances for light rain looks to be along and east of
a line from SUX to Worthington to Marshall which is where better
omega lifting and saturated layer persist. Low-level layers should
remain saturated so mostly cloudy conditions are still expected
through mid-afternoon, bringing more sunshine by late afternoon and

For the remainder of the extended, temperatures will be the main
feature. Building heights move in behind the frontal boundary,
leaving the forecast area mostly dry. With southerly surface winds
prevailing through the weekend, near to above normal temperatures
are expected with highs reaching the 70s. Model guidance diverges
in temperatures, bringing cooler temperatures; therefore have
raised temperatures from Friday to Monday by blending Superblend
and ConsRaw to produce highs in the 60s and 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light
variable winds. Clouds will be on the increase after 06Z Tuesday
from west to east as a shortwave moves in bringing light rain
across the region. Low end VFR to MVFR ceilings will be possible
in KHON terminal and areas along the Missouri River by mid-
morning Tuesday.




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