Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FNUS74 KFWD 282213
FWSFWD

Spot Forecast for Lavon Lake...US Army Corps of Engineers
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
513 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 CDT on March 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
South winds will be on the increase over the next 24 hours as the
local pressure gradient tightens. Speeds will increase to 15-25
MPH by midday Friday and remain gusty through the afternoon. RH
will fall to a minimum of around 50 percent Friday afternoon
following a max around 85 percent Friday morning. RH should climb
to around 90 percent Friday night/Saturday morning. Otherwise, a
warm-up will continue with Friday afternoon highs in the mid 70s.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 14 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 25 mph increasing to 28 to 33 mph
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  48  63  58  69  54  44  31  32  32  38  39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  54  54  56  60  64  67  70  72  74  74  75
RH..............90  90  90  90  87  75  70  61  57  51  51  50
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..17  17  20  21  22  22  22  22  22  22  22  21
20 FT wind gust.23  24  25  28  29  31  31  31  31  31  31  31
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  17  20  23  25  28  29  31  31  33  32  29
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........37  34  64  61  57  56  56  55  57  60  62  61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74  73  72  70  68  67  65  64  63  62  61  60
RH..............52  52  54  58  60  61  64  70  72  78  81  86
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..20  18  17  20  20  20  21  21  21  20  18  18
20 FT wind gust.29  25  25  25  25  25  26  26  26  26  25  24
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.25  23  22  23  25  25  25  24  23  23  22  21
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Fano
Requested by...Jon Boyce
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408798.0/FWD
.DELDT 03/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jonathan.e.boyce@usace.army.mil


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