227
FXUS65 KGGW 011924
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
124 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain shower chances with isolated thunderstorms will diminish
  in most areas after sunset this evening.

- Cold front Thursday morning brings rain and snow showers with
  isolated thunderstorms. The chances for rain and snow showers
  continue through Friday.

- Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas
  tonight through Friday night.

- Another round of rain showers are expected next week, starting
  late Sunday. Some places could receive about an inch late Monday
  into Monday Night.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A slow moving upper level low near the US/Canada border will
finally lift northeast away from the area late Friday. This will
allow for a break in the action before another upper low moves in
on Sunday.

Look for isolated showers and thunderstorms late today to
diminish this evening then more widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms to move in Thursday. It will be a cool day, and cool
enough that snow levels will lower for at least a mix in the
Little Rockies of southwest Phillips County, lesser of a chance
for the remainder of Phillips and northern Valley counties.

Temps then warm into the weekend before the next low moves in.

This next system moves in from the west and closes off nearby
Monday/Monday Night. The deterministic forecast is calling for an
inch of rain for the eastern and central zones. This should be
beneficial as April was drier than normal for these areas.
Temperatures will not be as cool as with the current system. TFJ

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Confidence is high on the showers behind the cold front on
Thursday but whether it will be rain or snow showers at a given
point and time will depend on temperatures. Low confidence on the
possibility of thunderstorms on Thursday. Medium confidence the
rain/snow showers continuing through Friday.

High confidence on the dry weather on Saturday and rain mainly on
Monday that lingers through most of next week. Lower confidence on
amounts and timing of the rainfall. TFJ

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 1920Z (1:20 PM)

FLIGHT CAT: VFR, possible MVFR Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION: Cumulus clouds this afternoon will stratify to mid-
level clouds this evening. Then low clouds will move in behind a
cold front Thursday morning with MVFR ceilings possible. An unstable
atmosphere this afternoon and evening will allow for scattered
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.

WIND: WSW 5 to 15 knots this afternoon. Winds will vary from SE
to SW less than 10 knots tonight, then increase from the NW
Thursday to 15 to 25 kts by the afternoon. TFJ


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow