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000
FXUS65 KGJT 092316
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
516 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Aside from a stray shower across the southern Colorado
  mountains, mainly dry weather is in store today under partly
  to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will be near to a few
  degrees below normal.

- A weak disturbance will clip the northern Colorado mountains
  late tonight into Wednesday, bringing a few showers and minor
  snow accumulations.

- Elsewhere, warm and dry weather prevails through at least the
  end of the week into the weekend, before the next system
  arrives early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Mostly sunny skies are evident for much of the area this
afternoon as high pressure slowly nudges in from the west with
temperatures on the rise. The exception to this are some cumulus
popping over the southern slopes of the San Juans and across the
eastern San Juans where an isolated shower or two is possible,
still under the influence of the departing low that is moving
across New Mexico into west Texas. Highs today will end up
closer to normal or a few degrees below normal, but warmer than
yesterday. Overnight lows tonight also end up a bit milder than
this morning, with 30s for the lower valleys, 20s for higher
valleys and 10s and 20s for the mountains.

We are still under the influence of northwest flow, so the
warmup will still take it`s time into Wednesday but this all
changes as the region comes under the building ridge and
eventual southwest flow late this week, speeding up the warming.
More on this in the Long Term section. Back to tonight into
Wednesday, a weak shortwave will track through the northwest
flow and clip the northwest Colorado mountains. This will
provide enough lift to generate some light snow showers but
accumulations look minor with a couple inches at best over the
higher peaks of the Park Range and possibly Flattops. These
light snow showers will arrive tonight and continue through
Wednesday morning before departing the region and coming to an
end by Wednesday afternoon. This will clear the way for mostly
sunny skies to return area wide and the warmup to continue,
allowing highs to climb a couple degrees on the positive side of
normal. All in all, mild conditions with near normal
temperatures will be the rule today and Wednesday with most
areas seeing dry conditions and mostly sunny skies with
exception of those northwest Colorado mountains tonight into
early Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Ridge of high pressure becomes more prominent Thursday, as the
ridge axis slides across the Great Basin. 700mb winds shift from
northwest to southwest Thursday morning, advecting warm and dry
conditions into eastern Utah and western Colorado. Temperatures
will increase 5 to 10 degrees warmer than high readings on
Wednesday, and then leap another 5 to 10 by Friday. Forecast
guidance has been fairly consistent with highs in the upper 70`s
to low 80`s for desert valleys Friday afternoon, which brings
our daily forecast highs roughly 15 degrees above normal. But,
warmth and sunshine will come at a price...as per usual, in the
form of wind. The northern extent of a subtropical jet noses
into the forecast area on Friday, thanks to a weak wave that
eventually becomes engulfed by the ridge overhead. Dry and
warmer surface conditions are favorable for mixing said winds
down the surface, thus another breezy afternoon is in store. The
likelihood of reaching wind warning/advisory thresholds remains
low, however, forecast gusts in excess of 30 mph are draped
across much of the forecast area. In addition, any moisture
lofted across the Western Slope by this decaying wave is more
likely to locally enhance surface gusts due to virga bombs
rather than any measurable precipitation reaching the ground.

Southwesterly winds and above average temperatures will
dominate the forecast until the next Pacific storm moves across
the Western CONUS. Deterministic guidance wobbles the center of
a closed low across the southern to central Great Basin on
Sunday, with precipitation returning Sunday night into Monday.
QPF and snow totals have trended downward in recent scenarios,
with a more northerly track favored with today`s solution. The
timing and location of a closed low`s center tends to vary
several days out, so I wouldn`t lock in snow totals just yet.
However, unsettled weather looks like it`ll stick around through
the first half of next week with a secondary low digging into
the Northern Rockies. This would also bring some relief from
abnormally warm weather at the tail end of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A weak passing system will spread lower clouds and some light
precipitation over the northern mountains through the next 24
hours. This could bring some ILS conditions to KHDN at some
point but otherwise VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...ERW
AVIATION...GJT