611
FXUS62 KGSP 070231
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1031 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A summerlike weather pattern remains through mid week with mainly
afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will be well above normal Tuesday through Thursday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be more numerous ahead of a strong cold front
which will cross our region Thursday night and Friday.  Expect drier
and cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1030 PM EDT Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue across the SC Upstate and far northern NC Piedmont this
evening. There is also a line of storms pushing across the TN valley
as of the writing of this AFD. This activity has prompted a several
severe warnings and SPS` this evening, mainly for hail near quarter
size, which stands to reason given the icy cores but not-so-
impressive DCAPE values across the area. With 500-1,000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and 20-30 kts of 0-3 km shear remaining in place across the
forecast area this evening, strong to severe storm threat will
continue through at least the next few hours as activity progresses
eastward.Heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will accompany any
storms that develop. Did increase PoPs along the NC/TN border, the
central SC Upstate, and the northern tier of the CWA to likely to
categorical over the next few hours to account for thunderstorm
activity.

Otherwise...as flow turns NW aloft this evening, CAM guidance
continues to depict additional waves of scatter showers and
thunderstorms through tonight...which should fizzle as instability
wanes. The latest couple runs of the HRRR now bring a semi-organized
line of cells across the mountains, with some redevelopment over the
western SC Upstate after midnight. If that happens...instability
will be minimal but nonzero, and shear will remain elevated...such
that a stray strong to severe storm couldn`t be ruled out.  Low
temps early tomorrow will be roughly 10 degrees above climatology
again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: A flat upper ridge will be in place across
the area Wednesday with weak short waves rippling through the flow
and across the area. A stronger short wave crosses the area early
Thursday as an upper low moves into the Great Lakes. At the surface,
a weak east/west oriented front stalls over the area Wednesday, with
a cold front moving in from the west on Thursday. The air mass
becomes very unstable Wednesday with moderate shear and mid level
dry air leading to increased DCAPE and sfc delta Theta-E values.
Coverage will be higher across the mountains, but severe storms will
be possible at any location across the area given these parameters.
Moisture increases on Thursday with less mid level dry air, DCAPE,
and sfc delta Theta-E values. Instability also falls, but could
remain in the moderate range while shear increases, approaching
strong territory. Convective coverage still favors the mountains,
but at least likely PoP will be featured across the area. Severe
storms will again be possible, but overall chance is more uncertain.
Highs Wednesday will push 90 degrees outside of the mountains, and
mid to upper 80s in the valleys then fall a few degrees Thursday.
Lows will be well above normal as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday: The Great Lakes low opens into a trough
which moves into the area Friday. A series of short waves keeps the
general troughiness over the eastern CONUS through the end of the
period. With the trough moving in on Friday, cyclogenesis takes
place near the Carolina coast along the cold front that moves
through on Thursday. Guidance keeps going back and forth on the
location of the front and cyclogenesis, along with any lingering
moisture and resulting precip. Have continued the trend of chance
PoP for now given the uncertainty. A series of weak clipper-like low
pressure centers of frontal systems move near or over the area
through the rest of the period. This leads to isolated to possibly
low end scattered showers for the mountains each day with dry
conditions elsewhere. Temps fall to a few degrees below normal by
Saturday, then rise back to near normal through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection is underway across the SC
Upstate and parts of the NC mountains.  Most model guidance
doesn`t bring this activity to KCLT directly, although some
lingering showers could certainly make it in the next 1-2 hours.
Some guidance depicts a round of showers and embedded thunderstorms
arriving from the west around and after midnight, but should this
develop it would mainly affect KAVL and the Upstate terminals.
IFR VIS and CIG restrictions are expected again tonight, with
the worst VIS expected for the mountain sites and the worst CIGs
expected virtually everywhere.  This should scatter out quickly
after daybreak Tuesday, followed by prevailing VFR through the
end of the period.  Some additional convection is possible in the
afternoon, but mostly looks to stay confined to the NC zones...and
may not even escape the mountains.

Outlook: Moist profiles will combine with a weak/stalled front
thru the mid-week, resulting in a period of active, mainly diurnal
convec- tive weather each day. There is potential for restrictions
associated with widespread fog and/or low clouds each morning. A
cold front moves in later in the week with continued chances of
diurnal convection.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...MPR