554
FXUS64 KHGX 061740
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Today should serve as a nice break from the disruptive weather
throughout last week. Weak impulses moving overhead may bring
isolated showers/storms today, mainly north of US-59 through the
late afternoon. Thankfully, these storms will lack forcing/upper
level support, keeping them weaker/lighter in nature, which
shouldn`t agitate ongoing flooding issues. High resolution models
indicate 850mb temperatures climbing into the range of 16-19C today.
Even with cloudy to partly cloudy skies, high should reach the 80s.
Ample moisture will limit cooling overnight, keeping lows for early
Tuesday in the mid/lower 70s.

An upper level trough/low should fill NE over the Northern
Plains/Great Basin on Tuesday. The southwestern flank of this
system`s front will stall out near the Brazos Valley, keeping just
north of our area for Tuesday. 850mb winds will be out of the
west/southwesterly during the afternoon, with high resolution
guidance showing temperatures at this level rising to 18-22C. NAEFS
and GEFS indicate that these 850mb temperatures will be around the
90th-97.5th climatological percentile for this time of the year.
Partly cloud skies and compressional heating with the aforementioned
frontal boundary will further improve heating during the afternoon.
As a result, highs for Tuesday will reach the upper 80s/lower 90s
inland and mid 80s along the coast. Dewpoints are expected to be in
the 70s as well, leading to very humid conditions throughout the
day, especially in areas which received recent heavy rainfall.

The combination of above-normal temperatures and moist conditions
will allow heat indices to break triple digits for the first time
this year. WBGT indices are forecasted to reach 80-87, indicating
a higher risk of heat-related illnesses for those participating
in strenuous outdoor activities. This may be particularly
problematic for first responders and others aiding in ongoing
recovery efforts from last week`s severe weather & flooding.
Early-season heat can be especially stressful, as the human body
has not had time to acclimate to the warmer conditions. With all
these factors in mind, a heat advisory may be necessary for
Tuesday.

Those with strenuous outdoor plans, especially those aiding in
recovery efforts, should be mindful of this early-season heat.
Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear lightweight clothing when
possible and take breaks indoors/out of the sun.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Hot and muggy conditions continue on Wednesday and Thursday.
South to southwest surface winds and 850mb temperatures into the
20 to 25 degC range will result in surface highs climbing into the
low 90s. On Wednesday, subtle vort maxes aloft and a passing LLJ
should lead to partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Thursday
looks to be hot, but pattern will change later during the day as
a frontal boundary pushes through, bringing rain and storm
chances. Deterministic solutions suggest a break in the cap later
in the afternoon; so have continued with PoPs around 20-45
percent. Overall, look for highs from the upper 80s to low 90s and
heat indices up to around 105F both Wednesday and Friday.

Friday is shaping up to be a few degrees cooler as surface high
pressure builds in the wake of the FROPA. Surface high gradually
shifts to our east by Saturday; bringing back return surface flow
and increasing Gulf moisture inland. Pattern changes by Sunday as
a parade of mid-level shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow moves
through the region ahead of another frontal boundary. Increasing
moisture and forcing will bring better rain and storm chances
Sunday and Monday.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR cigs should continue to transition into a lower end VFR
cumulus deck this afternoon. Best chance of MVFR cigs hanging on
through the afternoon will be near the coast. Winds will become
more southeast and increase during the afternoon. Winds decrease
tonight, with widespread MVFR cigs returning. Patchy fog will be
possible. Areas of IFR cigs are possible as well. Winds gradually
become more southerly tonight before becoming southwest tomorrow
morning. Southeast winds to return by tomorrow afternoon along
with a return to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A relatively dry weather is anticipated today and tonight with
moderate onshore winds and seas from 3 to 6ft. Seas may reach
advisory levels offshore (~7-8ft) at times today; but overall
forecast is to remain under 6ft. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
conditions remain in effect today. Light to moderate onshore winds
and low seas will prevail through the week. Winds will shift to the
north-northeast Thursday night into Friday as a cold boundary moves
through. Onshore winds resume by Saturday. The next best rain/storm
chances arrive during the weekend as multiple disturbances move
through.

Beach conditions...dangerous rip currents can be expected along all
Gulf facing beaches through late this evening.

Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks and streams
will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the
bays and ICWW well into midweek and can make navigation difficult.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today; however,
the threat of heavy rainfall resulting in any additional flooding
has ended across SE TX. Nonetheless, rivers are and will remain
swollen for days (possibly weeks), so please continue to take
caution. Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the
floodwaters. Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it
is safe.

Moderate to major river flooding continues, particularly along
portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto and Navasota rivers. The
following river points are at Major flood stage as of early Monday
morning:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage
- West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage
- San Jacinto River (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and
to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor
updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat
continues.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  90  73  91 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  75  91  75  91 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  84  76  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM