Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
216 FXUS66 KHNX 282208 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 308 PM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .UPDATE... Air Quality Section Updated && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes valid 6 PM this evening through 6 AM Monday morning. 2. Gusty winds in the Mojave Desert Slopes can be expected for the next couple of evenings, or until Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 3. High temperatures today are expected to be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday, or around seasonal norms, which will continue to be around the same through Wednesday. 4. Dry and warming conditions are expected next week, with highs around 8 to 12 degrees above normal by Friday, and there is the probability (25-50%) for valley highs to reach 90 degrees by Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... A zonal flow pattern has taken over from the trough that moved out of our area recently, which will lead to around normal temperatures through Wednesday. There will also be a continuation of gusty winds along the Mojave Desert Slopes this evening through the early morning tomorrow. So a Wind Advisory has been issued for that area. There will continue to be gusty winds in that region for the next couple of evenings until Wednesday morning. The San Joaquin Valley will also experience breezy winds from Wednesday morning through the evening due to a trough centered over the Northwest moves over and adds a bit of energy to the atmosphere over our area. This energy, with no moisture to lift, will create breezy winds for the area. After that trough passes on, a ridge will begin building over the Southwest on Thursday, leading to an increase in high temperatures. There are expected to be around 8 to 12 degrees above normal by Friday and will continue into Saturday. Here are the probabilities for select valley locations to see highs of 90 degrees or above on Saturday: Bakersfield: 51% Delano: 51% Visalia: 46% Fresno: 41% Hanford: 41% Lemoore: 41% Porterville: 41% Madera: 26% Reedley: 26% Merced: 16% The long term models are showing a trough coming in to the Northwest next weekend, leading to a cool down for the region down in California on Sunday, but there are disagreements as to the timing and how far down it will drop, which will affect how much it cools down and when it will happen. Our current forecast has high temperatures drop by 6 to 10 degrees between Saturday and Sunday, though some models show a faster trough and cooler temperatures on Sunday, or the other way around, with a slower trough and the cool down occuring on Monday instead. This forecast will become more refined with time. && .AVIATION... Gusty winds will redevelop along the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County this evening until Monday morning with gusts of 35 to 45 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout Central California for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 04/28/2024 13:53 EXPIRES: 04/29/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 AM PDT Monday for CAZ338. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather...........EW DSS/PIO................................DAS weather.gov/hanford