Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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029 FXUS64 KHUN 020148 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 848 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 848 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening with high pressure in control. Mostly clear and calm conditions will once again be the rule tonight, but unlike last night the boundary layer will be much drier. Thus, do not anticipate fog developing and being an impact late tonight or early Thursday morning. Still, the clear/calm conditions will create a setup up favorable for radiational cooling and expect low temperatures to drop off into the mid/upper 50s across southern middle Tennessee and northeast Alabama -- and the lower 60s elsewhere across northern Alabama. Only minor tweaks made to the forecast based on the latest obs/trends as everything remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Tomorrow, mid level ridging will continue to push east. One last day of high pressure influence will grant us another afternoon of near record high temperatures in the mid to high 80s. With tomorrow being the warmest day in this current pattern, there is a low chance a few locations could see their first 90 degree day of the year. Overnight Thursday into Friday is when we will see a pattern shift. Mid level ridging will begin to deteriorate giving way to a more zonal flow pattern. This will allow several short waves to ripple east across the area bringing our next chance for rain and storms Friday through Saturday. Rain chances pick up from the east early Friday morning with medium to high (30-70%) PoP`s remaining through late Saturday night. Highest chances for rain currently look to be both Friday and Saturday afternoon. The severe threat during this period remains low. Elevated convection will likely produces some rumbles of thunder however heavy rainfall looks to be the biggest threat with this system. While QPF currently remains below an inch for the entire area, a few factors will align to make heavy rainfall a threat. PWAT values will be near or just above 1.5" placing us well within the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology for BMX along with low and mid level RH >80%. With a very saturated atmosphere, heavy rainfall is very possible with a marginal (1/4) risk for excessive rainfall from WPC issued from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Thursday for the whole area. Without impressive QPF amounts, slow moving storms (only 15-20 KTs of steering flow) with efficient rainfall rates could produce localized nuisance flooding in flood prone areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Scattered/numerous showers/tstms look to continue into the first half of the weekend period, as a weak frontal boundary drifts SE into the mid TN Valley and stalls. Weak zonal flow aloft coupled with minimal low-level convergence should offset the prob for organized/stronger tstms, although brief heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. Rainfall will then diminish during the second half of the weekend, as the front weakens invof the area. Seasonably warm temps look to continue thru the weekend period, with highs Sat/Sun remaining predom in the lower/mid 80s, while lows into early Mon trend in the lower/mid 60s. Scattered showers/tstms are then expected on Mon, as the weak sfc boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front. Once again, overall synoptic forcing looks fairly weak although locally heavy rainfall is possible with a few of these showers/tstms. Rain chances will then diminish once again Mon night/Tue, as weak upper ridging moves across the region and high pressure at the sfc becomes established over the eastern Gulf region. Little change is also expected with overall temps into the new work week, with highs Mon/Tue once again in the lower/mid 80s and overnight lows remaining in the lower/mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with light SE/SSE winds and a mostly clear sky. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...AMP