141
FXUS63 KICT 060448
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1148 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Higher-end severe weather potential Monday afternoon-evening.

- Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Areas of light to at times moderate rain will persist over southeast
Kansas through early evening, as a shortwave trough traverses the
Southern Plains. Additional rainfall amounts should remain fairly
light, generally under one-tenth to one-quarter inch.

For tonight, strengthening deep moisture advection should support
patchy to areas of drizzle developing after midnight, and persisting
through at least Monday morning areawide. Additionally, patchy to
areas of fog (possibly dense fog) may develop this evening generally
along and east of the Flint Hills corridor, and persist into Monday
morning. This is due to clearing skies amidst a wet ground and low
dewpoint depressions. The evening shift may need to watch for a
dense fog advisory.

Our attention then turns to the potential for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms Monday afternoon-evening across the region, as a
potent/deep shortwave trough and attendant dryline approach from the
west, amidst an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across the
Central and Southern Plains. The anomalous combination of
buoyancy/shear (as highlighted by the NAEFS and EPS) favors severe
thunderstorms, some of which could produce "higher-end" severe
weather in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes, some of which could be strong (especially over southern
KS).

Model trends continue to support the greatest threat for discrete
supercells (and associated greater threat for higher-end severe
weather) across mainly southern KS, and south through OK, where mid-
upper flow is oriented more perpendicular to the dryline, large
scale forcing isn`t quite as strong, and destabilization will be
greatest. A handful of model point forecast soundings up and down
the dryline from southern KS south into OK continue to indicate a
potential kinematic and thermodynamic environment similar to some
past higher-end and even historic severe weather and tornado events.
This tornado threat will likely be highest generally along/south of
Highway 54/400 across south-central and southeast KS and points
south from late afternoon through the evening, as low-level
shear/SRH increases in response to a strengthening low-level jet,
amidst low clouds bases and high amounts of low-level buoyancy. It
is during this time a few strong, long-track tornadoes are possible.

Further north (roughly north of Highway 54/400), storm mode should
be rather messy given stronger forcing, and a more meridional
component to mid-upper flow, which should tend to limit higher-end
severe potential here, although embedded supercell and/or QLCS
structures should still lend to a hail threat up to 2 inches in
diameter, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

A another piece of uncertainty in the forecast surrounds the extent
of warm/moist sector low clouds throughout the day, owing to rapid
low-level quality moisture return. We will likely be locked in with
low clouds and drizzle through at least early afternoon across much
of the KS warm sector, limiting insolation and associated
destabilization, especially with northward extent. However, model
consensus does indicate sufficient heating/destabilization by late
afternoon and early evening, especially over south-central KS and
points south, enhancing the severe weather environment with
southward extent.

All-in-all, there remains potential for higher-end severe weather
across the region Monday afternoon-night in the form of very large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong,
especially from roughly Highway 54/400 on south. We will continue to
diagnose the above uncertainty and issue timely forecast updates.

After Monday night, the large-scale synoptic pattern favors mostly
quiet and dry weather across the Kansas region through at least the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

- IFR and LIFR CIG/VSBYs through 15Z this morning

- Good chance for strong to severe thunderstorms after 19Z

IFR and LIFR CIGs and VSBYs are likely for the first six to
eight hours of the TAF period. This will primarily affect the
KCNU terminals with some MVFR VSBYs but IFR CIGs at KICT. The
remaining terminals are likely to see IFR CIGs through the first
six to eight hours. After 17Z today, there is a chance for some
clearing in the KRSL, KGBD area before the next weather system
approaches. Thunderstorms are expected but the timing of this
thunderstorm activity is still in question. As such, not
confidence enough to do more than a PROB30 for this TAF cycle.
Thunderstorms that do occur are likely to be strong or severe.
Best chance for the thunderstorm activity will be after 19Z.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM