Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
145 FXUS62 KILM 282352 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 752 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Offshore high pressure leads to dry conditions through Monday. An upper level disturbance will lead to shower and storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday, a warming trend starting early next week as the high pushes further offshore. A cold front moves through late in the week, which brings an increased chance for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid level ridging and surface high pressure offshore leads to basically a persistence forecast. Convective clouds will dissipate in a few more hours leading to a mostly clear overnight. Fog is possible again in the wee hours of the morning more so inland. For Monday although surface dewpoints are similar to today`s soundings show drier air poised to mix down thus the cloud forecast is considerably less than todays observations. Overnight lows will reach the middle 50s with Mondays highs probably reaching around 80 most areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mon night should be mostly clear with cloud cover increasing towards Tues morning ahead of a shortwave, mostly in the form of mid/high level clouds early. Offshore high pressure will shift further from the coast through the day Tues with some lower clouds associated with isolated showers later in the day. It looks like a coastal trough forms Wed as the shortwave trough aloft deepens before nudging offshore by the end of the period. This will lead to enhanced precip chances Wed with thunder chances in the afternoon due to some instability. Currently the area is just in general thunder with ML lapse rates and winds aloft not supporting much of a wind or hail threat. Sounding bulk shear values could suggest some storm organization but otherwise not expecting a severe threat at this time. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The shortwave trough should be offshore Wed night with rain moving out with it, more surface high pressure approaching due to a shortwave ridge. It looks like a weak backdoor cold front may cross over the area Thurs AM but the passage will be dry, the boundary maybe even becoming diffuse before reaching us. Low precip chances will be relegated to the afternoon due to a weak pressure trough inland. Better chances for showers/storms will come towards the end of the week due to an approaching cold front and upper level trough. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with cooler conditions towards the end of the week with the increasing rain chances. Lows generally in the 60s, again cooler towards the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Will continue with a persistence forecast for the next 24 hrs as the center of high pressure relocates to offshore from the U.S. Southeast States Coast. Looking at primarily a VFR forecast except for a small MVFR window covered by a tempo group for reduced vsby due to fog for the inland terminals 09z-12z Mon. Looking at additional Cu development during Mon along with thin cirrus overriding the upper ridge and dropping down from the north. Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through the work week outside of flight restrictions possible due to fog or low cigs each morning, especially inland terminals. Isolated convection possible accompanying a weak mid-level s/w trof passage Tue night thru Wed. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Conditions across the coastal waters are all but in summer time mode. Winds maintain a southerly component in and around ten knots. Similar persistent story for significant seas with 2-4 feet. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. S/SW winds 10-15 kts become ENE Thur with the passage of a surface boundary, becoming southerly again Fri. Seas generally 2-3 ft. Best chances for shower/storms over the waters is Wed with the passage of a disturbance aloft and low pressure possibly forming along the coast. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...SHK/LEW