337
FXUS61 KILN 271317
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
917 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures are expected for the remainder of the
weekend. A chance for showers and storms will return Monday into
Tuesday as a cold front approaches and moves through the
region. After a brief dry period of weather at mid week, an
active wet period of weather will develop later Wednesday
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Few showers passing across west central Ohio will move off to
the northeast late this morning. Latest trends suggest that
there could be some additional showers and perhaps some thunder
as weak forcing tracks across the region this afternoon and
interacts with slightly unstable mid levels. That chance will
primarily be to the north and west of I-71.

Entire region will be well mixed resulting in stout sustained
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. It will be partly
sunny, although there will probably be more cloudy periods than
not. Forecast highs look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge builds north into the southern Great Lakes for
the end of the weekend. Can not rule out an isold shower or
thunderstorm across the far northwest this evening - otherwise
expect dry conditions overnight. Southerly winds stay up around
10 mph with mild lows generally in the lower 60s.

Firmly established in the warm sector Sunday - with a lack of
forcing do not expect widespread pcpn. Temperatures to warm to
highs generally in the lower 80s. These readings are 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mean H5 ridge axis begins to shift east of us Sunday night as a
shortwave barrels through the Central Plains region. Another
seasonably warm day expected on Monday underneath this ridge, but we
will begin to observe an increase in clouds and eventually a notable
increase in PoPs with the approaching shortwave. This shortwave
feature and associated cold front will be fairly progressive as it
swings through Monday night into the early part of Tuesday. This
will limit the QPF footprint across our CWA, but 0.25" - 0.5" still
plausible.

Temperatures slightly moderate on Tuesday, but highs are only a few
degrees cooler given the weak cold frontal boundary. Some rain
showers may linger into the early part of Tuesday before shifting
eastward. By Wednesday, weak ridging will build back in over the
Midwest, promoting drier conditions at the surface. However, warm
and relatively humid conditions will be observed, which will
continue into Thursday.

Model uncertainty grows as we near the end of the work week. There
is some resemblance of a shortwave trough that will influence the
weather pattern across the Ohio Valley. This will increases chances
for precip, but will have to see how model guidance trends over the
next few runs.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level ceilings this morning will decrease in coverage some
this afternoon with generally high level ceilings into the
overnight hours.

Additional shower or thunderstorm development is expected to
remain north of the TAF sites today. Another period of low level
wind shear is expected overnight after 06Z.

Southerly surface winds around 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts at
times today and then up to 20 kts tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR