054
FXUS63 KIWX 010514
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
114 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Other than a stray shower possible Wednesday, showers and
  storms are more possible Friday and Monday.

- Unseasonably warm through the week with highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure slides east supporting continued dry conditions into
Wednesday, with dew points dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s,
as well as a return to a warm air advection pattern. Lows are
expected to be slightly warmer than last night, in the 50s. With the
drier air lingering and despite the relatively low temperatures, dew
point depressions in the upper single digits to teens out ahead of a
weak cold front may allow for a low end slight chance PoP Wednesday
morning with greater chances in the west before temps warm and re-
establish higher dew point depressions in the I-69 corridor with
mixing ensuing.

Wednesday`s cold front rises back north as a warm front Thursday
allowing for our warmest day this week with highs securely in the
80s. Mid level temperature anomalies amounting to 1 to 2 SDs above
normal indicate possible capping and with minimal shear, this would
indicate any PoP shower/storm Thursday afternoon is more of the
pulse variety if they do form. Have retained slight to low end
chance PoPs for that set up.

There`s some question about how fast the cold front moves through on
Friday and there`s a lack of shear notable on models with much of
the forcing going north of the area. While some instability could be
around depending on the speed of the FROPA, this likely stays sub-
severe. The atmospheric column is dry on Saturday with the best
moisture residing south of US-24. Perhaps there`s a pop shower or
storm there during the afternoon so will retain some PoPs to
accommodate that.

After a brief break in the unsettled weather occurs for Sunday with
a surface high pressure center moving through, the Monday through
Tuesday period looks to see renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperature wise, the norm this week will be highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s, which is slightly above average for this time of
year. The warmest day will be Thursday with highs securely into the
80s, but both Wednesday and Friday have chances for a few areas to
see 80 degrees as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

As a weak cold front approaches from the west, a few showers
will be possible in the vicinity of KSBN before 12Z. As the cold
front progresses across the area late this morning into the
early afternoon, winds will increase to around 15 kts with gusts
up to 25 kts. In addition, ceilings should remain VFR through
much of the day, but there may be times where ceilings drop to
near MVFR at 3500 to 4000 ft as clouds move through along the
cold front. Behind the front, winds shift this evening from
south to northwest and diminish to around 5 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Johnson