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000
FXUS63 KJKL 240705
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
305 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak passing cold front will bring light showers to most
  locations tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Below normal temperatures return by Thursday morning, bringing
  the risk for patchy frost in valleys.

- Temperatures then trend well above normal for the weekend into
  early next week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 143 AM EDT WED APR 24 2024

Light rain showers continue to overspread the area; however,
amounts have been light, as the low levels continue to be
resistant to saturation. Given this delayed response, have
adjusted the QPF down, with most locations likely receiving less
than a tenth of an inch of rainfall. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 1118 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2024

Showers and sprinkles were moving across the northern half of the
CWA at this time along and in advance of a cold front that is
dropping across the OH Valley. Grids were updated based on recent
observations and radar trends. This led to no substantial changes
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 321 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2024

The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure has settled
southeast along the Atlantic Coast of Georgia and a cold front is
advancing across the Midwest. The CAMS and ensembles are in good
agreement with this cold front pushing southward toward eastern
Kentucky later this evening into early Wednesday. Meanwhile, we
will see a mid-level spoke from the upper level closed low slide
across the Great Lakes introducing height falls to the Ohio
Valley. This will lead to a good chance of rain showers (60-90
percent), but it will only produce very light rainfall totals of
generally a tenth of an inch or less. The idea of these totals
match well with the LPMM of the HREF, with the higher totals of
around a tenth or a little more being in the far southeast. Timing
wise, the best chances of rain will be between midnight and 4 am
from northwest to southeast.

The guidance including the ensembles indicate the cold front will
pass through Wednesday and high pressure build in quickly at the
surface. This will lead to northwest flow and slightly cooler
temperatures than today, but clouds will clear quickly through the
day based on the HREF. High pressure will continue nosing into
the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday night. This coupled with clear
skies will lead to mainly eastern valley frost potential late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Given this leaned toward
the previous forecast and the COOP MOS versus the 5th percentile
of the NBM. This is because the NBM 5th percentile doesn`t seem to
have a good handle on this idea. This will lead to overnight lows
in the low to mid 30s in the eastern valleys and the upper 30s to
lower 40s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT WED APR 24 2024

The period begins Thursday night with upper ridging over the
Mississippi River Valley between a downstream trough just off the
East Coast and an upstream trough ejecting out of New Mexico and
the Central Rockies. Surface high pressure will reside over much
of the northeastern part of the US and bring eastern Kentucky
light east to southeast near-surface flow initially. An
approaching warm front will bring increasing clouds from the
southwest Friday morning, but will likely leave much of the
northeastern half of the forecast area under mostly clear skies
Friday morning. Given surface high pressure in place nearby,
light winds, and clear skies, chilly conditions are possible in
sheltered valleys east of Interstate 75, with some COOP MOS sites
such as Sandy Hook and West Liberty possibly reaching as low as 32
or 33 degrees, which may result in areas of frost. Otherwise,
lows outside of the sheltered valleys will likely remain in the
40s.

The aforementioned warm front moves northeast into the base of the
upper ridge over eastern Kentucky Friday, bringing increased yet
light south to southeast flow. PoPs and QPF continue to trend lower
for Friday as the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere will be
quite dry initially and will require extensive moisture transport
into the area. Nevertheless, chance (generally 30-35) PoPs are
carried primarily for the afternoon hours Friday before rapidly
tailing off into the evening as the warm front moves north of the
area.

Models, and thus the NBM, continue their drying trend from Friday
night through the weekend as upper ridging over the Southeast US
coastline trends stronger with time and attempts to keep the main
jet stream confined to the Mississippi River Valley and Lower
Ohio Valley and points north and west. This resulting trend for
eastern Kentucky plays out with increased surface southerly winds
through the period and thus downstream warming and drying over
eastern Kentucky from the nearby mountain ranges to the south and
southeast. PoPs remain below 10 percent from mid-evening Friday now
all the way into late Sunday night or early Monday morning before
an upstream wave is able to weaken the ridge enough to push a
weakening cold front across the area by Tuesday. Thus, it appears
more and more likely the most unsettled part of the long term
will come Monday into Tuesday with high chance PoPs (40-50 PoPs).

After chilly temperatures in the eastern sheltered valleys Friday
morning, expect temperatures to steadily trend upwards into early
next before shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday into
Tuesday. Highs in the 70s Friday will warm into the 80s Saturday
through Monday, and possibly beyond as the cold front washes out
over the area Tuesday. Lows will also trend warmer with upper 50s
and 60s from Friday night onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT WED APR 24 2024

A passing cold front will bring light rain and lowering ceilings
to the area overnight. Most locations should remain VFR, generally
between 3-6k feet agl, besides some temporary MVFR clouds
possible at KJKL around dawn for a few hours. The light
precipitation will come to an end from northwest to southeast
between 08 and 12z, with ceilings scattering out through the
morning. Skies will turn clear by late this afternoon and evening.
Southwest winds of 5 to 8 kts will become westerly behind the
frontal passage, before gradually veering to the northwest through
the day, and eventually north northeast towards the end of the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN