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000
FXUS64 KLCH 111735
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows one area of low pressure centered
over the FL panhandle with a trailing cold front out into the nrn
Gulf, while our main sfc low is analyzed south of Memphis with a
weak trof noted back swwd into our forecast area. Water vapor
imagery shows the shortwave responsible for yesterday`s severe
weather approaching the ArkLaMiss with a dry nrly mid/upper-level
flow beginning to encroach the region at this time. Regional 88Ds
show a few light returns crossing our nern zones, with the bulk of
the precip associated the stacked low off to our north. Otherwise,
obs indicate a cloudy and much cooler night ongoing for our area
with breezy wrly winds lingering.

Not really much to speak of in the short term this morning. With
sfc analysis showing a good pressure gradient behind the departing
low, along with good CAA ongoing, expecting wrly/nwrly winds to
pick up after sunrise, and thus a Wind Advisory has been issued
for today, ending first across the wrn 1/2 of the area as the
gradient relaxes with the approach of high pressure...then ending
by evening across the ern zones. Under clearing skies,
temperatures by this afternoon are expected to run around
seasonal norms with much cooler than normal readings expected
tonight.

With sfc high pressure passing by on Friday, we`ll begin to see a
moderation in temperatures as low-level flow shifts to a more
onshore direction. This will also lead to a return of some cloud
cover by Saturday.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Not much to talk about in the long term either. Moisture will be
increasing through the period as a deep swrly flow aloft
develops...however the building ridge will keep any convective
development at bay. Models showing a shortwave progged to slip
past the region on Tuesday now keep the bulk of the lift to our
north, therefore POPs included this time yesterday morning have
now been removed.

The moderation of temps which started late in the short term will
continue through the long term, especially morning lows which are
forecast to be in the lower 70s for the bulk of the area by the
end of the period.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR/SKC to prevail through the period with winds the primary
aviation concern over the next 6 to 8 hours. NW winds will
continue to gust to around 35 KT this afternoon at the Acadiana
terminals, with gusts around 25 KT at the other terminals
gradually diminishing through the afternoon. Gusts should
continue to taper down through early evening with sustained speeds
falling to less than 10 KT by 05-06Z as surface high pressure
builds into the area.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Adjusted the expiration times of the going SCA based on the latest
wind/wave height grids, but still expect conditions on all the
waters to improve by the end of the day as high pressure begins to
build over the region.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  45  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  78  51  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  78  52  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  79  53  79  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ028-029-031>033-
     044-045-055-142-143-152>154-242-243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24