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000
FXUS65 KLKN 121954
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1254 PM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms throughout the evening hours and then again on
Saturday. Winds will be very gusty out of the south and southeast in
the afternoon and evening hours Saturday, which may result in
blowing dust and reduced visibilities. Much cooler expected Saturday
night into Sunday with light snow reaching some of the valley
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Skies are mainly
sunny in central Nevada, with partly sunny conditions in northern
Nevada. Mid-level moisture has moved into the northern parts of
the forecast area and have allowed for the development of isolated
thunderstorms. Look for these storms to diminish during the
overnight, though isolated to scattered showers will continue.
Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

For tomorrow and Saturday night, strong winds will develop,
especially across central Nevada. Wind advisories have been
issued for all of Lander/Eureka, northeastern Nye, and White Pine
counties for winds 30 to 40 mph and gusts to 55 mph. Meanwhile, a
high wind warning is in effect for northwest Nye county for winds
30 to 40 mph and gusts to 65 mph. Areas of blowing dust with
visibility reductions to a mile or less will be possible. This is
response to a strong low pressure system that will be coming
ashore Saturday. Expect increasing clouds and precipitation as
this system moves east. This will include isolated thunderstorms
as well with some downburst wind gusts to 60 mph. High
temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. By Saturday night, all
models are showing a strong cold front pushing across northern and
central Nevada. This will usher in a colder air mass with snow
levels lowering to 5000 to 5500 feet by Saturday morning.
Overnight lows will be in the 30s and precipitation is expected to
change over to snow in the higher elevations, but less so in the
valleys.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.

Deep upper level low continues to move inland Sunday, positioned
over Nevada Sunday afternoon. Rain and snow showers expected
during the day and most of Sunday night. Greatest valley rain and
rain/snow mix accumulations will be in and near Humboldt County
Sunday morning as precipitation continues to move in from the
southwest. Valley liquid totals of 0.10” to 0.25” generally
expected in Humboldt County. Instability showers are also possible
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon with a low probability,
less than 10%, for a rumble of thunder. Afternoon showers will be
generally brief with graupel likely under any stronger showers.
Southwest winds will be elevated Sunday but not be as strong as
they were Saturday, remaining sub advisory levels. Showers and
winds dissipate Sunday night from west to east as the low
continues to progress east out of the area. Cooler temperatures
Sunday with daytime highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s and overnight
lows in the low 20s to low 30s.

Lingering light showers Monday morning within White Pine and
portions of eastern Elko Counties, becoming mostly dry for the
afternoon. However, a few afternoon showers may reappear across
northern Elko County as moisture wraps around the backside of the
low while it is positioned over Utah. Northwesterly breezes will
also be in place during the day. Latest numerical guidance has
begun to pull back on the prospect of a deep low and robust cold
front moving into Nevada from the north Tuesday. Probability of
precipitation decreases to 10-25% for northern Nevada Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry conditions now indicated across central Nevada.
Northwesterly afternoon breezes likely thru mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...Ongoing thunderstorms and showers impacting KEKO,
KBAM, and KWMC dissipate thru this evening and the first part of
the night. Winds also become light to breezy overnight. Strong
southerly winds are forecast Saturday with afternoon gusts
strongest at KTPH, reaching 45 to 55KTS. Blowing dust likely
produces haze throughout the forecast area with reductions in
visibility also possible, primarily at KTPH, where winds will be
strongest. Much anticipated round of showers with wider coverage
move in from the southwest Saturday evening. An embedded weak
thunderstorm or two will also be possible. Activity begins at KTPH
around 04Z Sunday, and KWMC around 07Z Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Accelerated melting of the mountain snowpack
continues through Saturday as temperatures remain well above
normal. Gusty southerly winds today and Saturday will also
contribute to the increased rate of snowmelt, with elevated and
swift flows on many regional waterways through at least Saturday
night. The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, and may
reach minor flood stage later today or on Saturday. The Owyhee
River near Mountain City is currently very close to action stage,
and will likely reach and remain above action stage late this
evening or early Saturday morning after another day of warm
temperatures.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday Northeastern Nye
County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County...White Pine
County.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday Northwestern
Nye County.

&&

$$

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